What’s on the Table for the Negotiations?

Check in soon for briefing highlights.

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing about what Congress can expect during the upcoming international climate negotiations in Dubai (COP28). From the opening World Climate Action Summit to the intense negotiations during the final days, thousands of events will take place over the course of the two-week United Nations session. This briefing will help you identify what to follow, whether you are on the ground in Dubai or back in D.C.

Panelists unpacked the overall process of international climate negotiations, discussed the key topics on the agenda, reviewed possible climate policy outcomes, and explored pathways for subsequent Congressional action.

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

COP28 will convene about 70,000 international participants and thousands of interests and agendas will be at play. Stakeholders who will be in attendance include subject area experts; country diplomats, negotiators, and elected officials; private sector representatives; local government leaders; and more.
The main point of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) annual Conference of the Parties (COP) is to negotiate the language of decision texts in order to clearly define collective and individual country treaty responsibilities. Alongside the negotiations are thousands of other meetings, events, and launches during the two weeks of COP.
Key issues to watch for at COP28 include the global stocktake, loss and damage financing, other climate finance topics, adaptation, and mitigation.
The Local Climate Action Summit will bring subnational leaders together as a part of an official COP Presidency event for the first time at COP28.

Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán, U.S. Representative (D-Calif.)

A summer of record heat waves, wildfires, and flooding in 2023 have raised the stakes for COP28 in Dubai.
This year, $1.7 trillion is expected to be invested in clean energy technologies worldwide, compared to $1 trillion in global fossil fuel investments.
COP28 provides an opportunity to rapidly increase both the pace and scale of action needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Congress has a role to play in meeting U.S. climate targets by phasing out fossil fuels, increasing the pace of climate action across governments and businesses, providing mitigation and adaptation financing for developing countries, protecting our global food system and reducing its carbon footprint, and holding other governments accountable to their previous climate commitments.
Local, state, and federal governments must work together and alongside global partners to achieve real progress in addressing climate change.

Tracy Bach, Co-Focal Point, UNFCCC Research and Independent NGOs (RINGO)

The main point of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC’s) annual Conference of the Parties (COP) is to negotiate the language of decision texts in order to clearly define the responsibilities of the parties (i.e., all countries that have signed a treaty) to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement.
The first week of COP negotiations is highly technical. During this week, most of the work will be completed by two subsidiary bodies—the Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body on Science and Technical Advice (SBSTA).
Key features of the first week of COP28 will include: negotiations within the subsidiary bodies; the World Climate Action Summit, which will be attended by heads of state and heads of government; the High-Level Ministerial Dialogue on the next global climate finance goal; and week one’s closing day. On the closing day, the two subsidiary bodies provide draft recommended texts for consideration by the plenary bodies (i.e., the COP, the meeting of the parties under the Kyoto Protocol (CMP), and the meeting of the parties under the Paris Agreement (CMA)).
The second week of COP is focused on political-level negotiations. Ministers focus these negotiations on unresolved agenda items from week one.
Outside the negotiations, the COP Presidency, held by a different country each year, selects thematic days to encourage discussions around the designated topics. The thematic days are not on the negotiating agenda.
This year’s Presidency is the United Arab Emirates, which is why COP28 will take place in Dubai.
This COP will include the first-ever global stocktake (GST). The GST is a comprehensive, collective review of progress to date on Article 2 of the Paris Agreement. Article 2 includes:
- Keeping global warming well below a 2°C (3.6°F) increase,
- Achieving sufficient climate adaptation, and
- Providing financial flows to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
The formal GST decision text will be the culmination of two years of intensive research. Countries will use the outcome of the GST as they update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) due at COP30 in 2025. This is called the ambition cycle or “ratchet mechanism” of the Paris Agreement.
Key issues to watch for at COP28 include the GST, loss and damage financing, other climate finance topics, adaptation, and mitigation.

Lynn Wagner, Senior Director, Tracking Progress, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

Official COP28 agenda items include the GST, the global goal on adaptation, the mitigation work programme, the new collective quantified goal on climate finance, and loss and damage. There will likely be 60 or more decisions from these agenda items.
The GST occurs every five years, following two years of technical dialogue. In this first GST, developing countries will likely want the final text to be past-looking, focusing on which parties should take responsibility for climate change and which commitments have not been met, including promises from developed countries to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance by 2020.
The latest GST draft text also has forward-looking sections, which seek a path forward based on determinations made in the current GST and makes recommendations for what countries should include in their next round of NDCs.
The GST also covers global climate finance. Developing countries want the focus to be on getting financial assistance out the door, while developed countries will likely focus on where that assistance comes from (i.e., the private sector, national governments, etc.).
The global goal on adaptation, established under the Paris Agreement, states that parties should enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability to climate change. Two years of global goal on adaptation talks leading up to COP28 included debates on how adaptation should be measured, time frames for adaptation, and who will set the indicators of and targets for progress.
As part of the mitigation work programme, two global dialogue events are held every year. The 2023 dialogues focused on accelerating a just energy transition.
COP28 will include important discussions on specific language around fossil fuels. Possible terms that could be used are phasing out fossil fuels, phasing down fossil fuels, or phasing out unabated fossil fuels. Where the language is included, if at all, matters, and it will hold more weight if it is included in the GST or mitigation work programme decision.
Workshops around the new collective quantified goal on climate finance are ongoing, with negotiations set to conclude by 2025 and no outcomes likely to be announced at COP28.
The COP28 Presidency’s Action Agenda includes:
- fast-tracking the energy transition;
- improving and expanding international institutions for climate finance;
- putting nature, people, lives, and livelihoods at the heart of climate action; and
- ensuring an inclusive COP28.
The third agenda item is expected to result in a Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action and a Declaration on Climate and Health.

Zoha Shawoo, Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute U.S.

The Loss and Damage Fund seeks to compensate developing countries that are suffering from the worst impacts of climate change, but have contributed the least to the problem via historic fossil fuel consumption. Developing countries should be aided by developed countries that have benefited from burning fossil fuels and are better positioned to be resilient to climate impacts.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report states that even if the Earth does not warm more than 2°C (3.6°F), there will still be loss and damage caused by extreme heat, flooding, coastal erosion, and other disasters. Damages are estimated to be as much as $580 billion dollars per year.
The Loss and Damage Fund was first proposed by Vanuatu in 1991 as a means to protect small island nations from sea level rise.
Although loss and damage efforts have gained support over the last three decades, developed countries have been hesitant to commit financing. The fund was established at COP27 in 2022, but funding has yet to flow into it. Contention over the logistics of the fund—including who should pay into it, who can receive financing from it, and what organization should host it—have all delayed the process of the fund becoming operational.
Despite calls from developing countries to create a stand-alone entity to house the fund, the World Bank will be an interim host. Concerns over the World Bank's ability to distribute grants as a loan-based institution have been at the forefront of the dispute over who should host the fund.
The United States and other developed countries have pushed for countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to be added to the list of countries eligible to pay into the fund.
Negotiations are ongoing over who will sit on the board of the fund and how much power and agency developing countries will have in distribution and application.
The Stockholm Environment Institute recommends several considerations for the Loss and Damage Fund during COP28, including:
- Adopt alternative eligibility requirements to include countries in conflict-prone and otherwise vulnerable areas;
- Adopt a flexible, grants-based approach;
- Ensure finance reaches the local level;
- Adopt participatory and representative decision-making processes; and
- Adopt comprehensive, full-spectrum approaches.

Ryan Finnegan, Deputy Manager, U.S. Climate Policy and America Is All In, World Wildlife Fund

COP28 will convene about 70,000 international participants and thousands of interests and agendas are at play. Stakeholders who will be in attendance include subject area experts; country diplomats, negotiators, and elected officials; private sector representatives; local government leaders; and more.
In addition to official government representatives, the United States is sending a diverse delegation to COP28, including tribal nation leaders, governors, state agency leads, mayors, academic representatives, investors, faith groups, healthcare organizations, and cultural institutions. It is critical that every corner of society contributes to the discussions at COP28.
The COP28 Local Climate Action Summit, the first of its kind at a COP, will bring subnational leaders together to discuss implementing sustainable practices, increasing local climate financing, and transitioning to clean energy. Emphasizing the role of local efforts in combating climate change is essential to meeting international climate goals.
The America Is All In program connects subnational actors from the United States who will be present at COP28. Their COP28 pavilion will host a series of events between December 3 and5 to share ideas between U.S. delegates and their international counterparts.

Anna Yelverton, Director of Legislative Affairs, Office of the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, U.S. Department of State

The State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Climate’s legislative affairs team is available as a resource for Congressional staff and other affiliates going to or following COP28.
The United States has a robust delegation going to COP28, including bipartisan members of the House and Senate. It is an important COP to see progress and achieve successful outcomes on issues such as climate finance, loss and damage funding, and the GST.
In addition to central negotiation topics, the United States hopes to advance a range of public-private partnerships and bilateral initiatives.
The State Department will host a suite of events alongside the negotiations at the S. Center.

Q&A

Q: What is the status of the Global Methane Pledge?

Wagner

The Methane Pledge is an example of a “side agreement.” It is not embedded in the official negotiations, but it is likely that the countries and other entities involved with the pledge will promote it at COP28.

Bach

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition has been tracking the progress of the pledge. Declarations like the Global Methane Pledge can be important, but in a COP like this year’s, where there are so many difficult decisions to make, it is less likely these sorts of additional announcements will be emphasized.
Declarations are usually not tracked very closely (if at all) after they are made, so determining their progress can be difficult.

Yelverton

The United States and more than 150 countries are part of the pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. This pledge is important because methane is a super pollutant, meaning its global warming potential is much higher than that of carbon dioxide, and its impact will be intensified in the next 20 years.
The pledge is a voluntary effort with no negotiated outcome. The GST could present an opportunity for counties to sign onto a negotiated outcome on methane and other greenhouse gases, meaning there would be a way to hold them accountable.

Q: What issues do you expect to be top-level agenda items at this COP? How are they different from previous COPs?

Bach

Climate finance is at the top of the list. It has the most agenda items for this COP. More parties are discussing climate finance and there is a lot of research that needs to be done on it.

Wagner

Countries are at the point where they are actually figuring out what processes established under the Paris Agreement look like, including the GST and the global goal on adaptation. To some extent, negotiators are building the road as they go to advance international climate governance.

Shawoo

Developing countries may be hesitant to work with developed countries on mitigation measures because they have experienced a lack of support in adaptation, resilience, climate finance, and loss and damage funding.
Progress in the dialogue surrounding climate finance in developing countries may be key to future cooperation.

Finnegan

Finance will be a focal point of this COP. Reactions to the GST and gaining an understanding of the gap between need and funding availability will take up a lot of conversation. Keeping the 1.5°C (2.7°F) goal alive and emphasizing mitigation and adaptation efforts will also be at the forefront of the conversation.
COP28 is the first checkpoint for some of the goals that were set in the Paris Agreement in 2016.
This COP is also promising to elevate actors who have been involved in climate efforts who have not previously held a seat at the table.

Q: How can youth participate virtually in the Youth Forum on December 8 or in COP28 broadly?

Bach

Start by looking up YOUNGO. YOUNGO is the constituency for youth within the UNFCCC. It is very well-organized and they have some declarations out. Participation in COP is a little difficult because you do need a “blue badge” to gain access to the negotiating room. Virtual badges are unlimited so it is just a matter of teaming up with an organization that can provide a badge for you. There are also a lot of organizations, including the UNFCCC, that record panels and meetings and have videos available on their website, so it is always possible to participate that way.

Q: What will determine the amount of funding for the next global climate finance goal? How was the $100-billion figure chosen?

Wagner

Negotiators have already participated in a series of workshops trying to answer this question. They are asking what factors it should be based on, what timeline they should commit to, and if it should be based on actual need or what the donors are capable of giving.

Shawoo

Civil society and other researchers have been pushing for the funding target to be needs-based. The $100-billion figure was chosen because it is large and it sounds nice, but there was not any particular process behind it. Independent assessment will likely play a role. The Adaptation Gap Report 2023 assesses the gap between adaptation financing and need, the GST could also help determine need. It is unlikely that stakeholders will be able to determine a number large enough to address all the needs, so the chosen amount will ultimately be large but probably somewhat arbitrary.

Bach

All roads around finance lead back to the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance. Part of their agenda has included needs-based calculations. They have already put out one report and are looking at a second. The Standing Committee on Finance is a great resource for answering questions surrounding any finance issue because they are collecting research from independent groups, as well as conducting their own.

Q: What resources do you recommend to keep up to date with happenings at COP28?

Shawoo

The Third World Network highlights the Global South and other marginalized voices in their newsletter every day at COP. The Climate Action Network does a daily newsletter as well.

Wagner

IISD publishes the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), which covers all international environmental meetings to describe what happens in negotiating sessions. ENB includes photos from inside COP, as well as a full summary and analysis of the meetings within 72 hours of the end of the COP.

Bach