What’s on the Table for the Negotiations

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing about what Congress expected during the United Nations climate negotiations in Belém, Brazil (COP30). Hundreds of negotiating sessions and thousands of events took place over the course of the two-week U.N. session.

Panelists explained key issues on the negotiating agenda, including determining metrics for climate adaptation and charting the path toward international climate finance goals. The briefing described the role of the COP30 Brazil Presidency and its forest and agriculture priorities, unpacked the evolving role of the United States in this international policy-making process, and highlighted which U.S. stakeholders were expected at COP30—from businesses and nonprofits to state and local governments. It will also previewed the realm of possible outcomes from COP30 and what they would mean for U.S. climate policy.

View the full briefing series at eesi.org/cop30-briefings.

 

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The 2025 United Nations climate change conference is composed of five meetings, which all take place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The 30th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP30) to the convention, the 20th meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP20), the 7th meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA7), the 63rd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA63), and the 63rd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI63). These meetings are collectively referred to as COP30 and are taking place in Belém, Brazil, this year. The Brazilian government chose Belém for COP30 due to the city’s proximity to the Amazon Rainforest, reminding COP30 attendees of nature's significant role in mitigation, adaptation, and livelihoods.  There is still a role for U.S. policymaking in the COP process, but it is shifting toward the subnational and local level. Additionally, U.S. businesses are playing an active role in COP, since they can learn how rules and norms set by other governments will impact global markets.

 

Tracy Bach, Lecturer, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College; Steering Committee Member, UNFCCC Research and Independent NGOs (RINGO) 

• The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference is composed of five meetings, which all take place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The 30th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP30) to the convention, the 20th meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP20), the 7th meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA7), the 63rd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA63), and the 63rd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI63). These meetings are collectively referred to as COP30 and are taking place in Belém, Brazil, this year.
• The first week is composed primarily of technical meetings and the second week consists largely of political meetings.
• The Paris Agreement, currently implemented by 194 countries and the European Union, has three main components designed to drive down greenhouse gas emissions:
  • Nationally determined contributions (NDCs): National climate action plans in which each country outlines its strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet Paris Agreement goals.
  • Enhanced transparency framework (ETF): Reporting system through which countries provide data to show their progress on mitigation and adaptation. Participating countries are required to file biennial transparency reports (BTR) every two years.
  • The Global Stocktake (GST): Process for countries to collectively see where they are making progress towards Paris Agreement goals and what gaps remain. 
• COP30 will draw attention to the NDCs filed this year—although only one third of participating countries (63) announced new NDCs. These countries represent half of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• COP30 will not only focus on furthering climate mitigation but also on making progress on the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation, which has yet to be fully implemented.
• The Brazil Climate Action Agenda presents a real opportunity to reduce emissions. It uses Global Stocktake findings to organize past declarations on global climate action and it mobilizes not only countries but also non-state actors, non-national governments, and the private sector. 

 

Courtney Durham Shane, Senior Officer, Climate Mitigation, The Pew Charitable Trusts

• The Brazilian government chose Belém for COP30 due to the city’s proximity to the Amazon Rainforest, reminding COP30 attendees of nature's significant role in mitigation, adaptation, and livelihoods. 
• Brazil's COP30 Presidency plans to focus on three key nature themes: protecting and restoring forests (with a special emphasis on the Amazon Rainforest), safeguarding mangroves and ocean coasts, and integrating Indigenous and community-led solutions. 
• Nature is expected to be integrated into key COP30 negotiations, including the Global Goal on Adaptation, COP29’s New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, and NDCs. 
• The Tropical Forest Forever Facility is a new $125 billion initiative to keep tropical forests intact. It is part of the wider Baku to Belém Roadmap to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually for climate action, which will be further discussed and clarified at COP30.
• Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo are hosting unofficial COP30 events before and during the conference. In Belém, subnational leaders from around the world, including many U.S. leaders, will present new climate finance proposals. The private sector will also be present, focusing on deforestation-free supply chains and high-integrity carbon markets.

 

Q&A 

 

Q: What is the definition of a developing country, and has that definition changed over time? Why would China be considered a developing country when it is one of the major players at COP30?

Durham Shane

• The UNFCCC defined ‘developed’ and ‘developing’ countries in 1992 (now classified as Annex I and Non-Annex I, respectively, to the Convention), based on factors like levels of industrialization. While some developing countries have significantly transformed their economies since 1992, they are still considered developing. Countries like China and Russia do not want to be held liable for the same climate action requirements as developed countries, so they have little incentive to change the definition.

Bach

• Definitions of developed and developing countries change across treaties and organizations. The Paris Agreement uses a nuanced, flexible approach to differentiation, while the Kyoto Protocol uses a rigid Annex I or non-Annex I to differentiate countries. The UN in general uses developing and developed more fluidly.
• Parties describe themselves as developing to argue that they do not have the same responsibilities for emission reductions as developed countries. 

 

Q: What is the status of official U.S. engagement within the UNFCCC? What has its presence been like in the subsidiary bodies and other activities since the new administration?

Bach

• U.S. status within the UNFCCC diminished after the Trump Administration withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement by executive order in 2016, and again in 2025. 
• The United States and China previously co-facilitated the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) negotiating stream, but the U.S. actors previously involved are no longer part of the U.S. government.
• Non-state actors, such as subnational leaders and the private sector, are still present and making voluntary commitments as well as reporting on their greenhouse gas emission reductions, like nations do in the Global Stocktake (GST).

 

Q: Following up, what will this change in U.S. presence mean for the negotiations? Specifically, what other countries will fill the gap?

Durham Shane

• The United States previously held a very robust role in the negotiations, including bridging differences between countries and leading dealmaking. Now, the European Union, China, or other major emitters may fill this gap. 

 

Q: There are reports that Congressional delegations are unable to attend due to the lapse of appropriations. Without a U.S. federal presence at COP30, why should federal policymakers still pay attention to COP30? What COP negotiation outcomes should U.S. federal policymakers still track?

Durham Shane

• There is still a role for U.S. policymaking in the COP process, but it is shifting toward the subnational and local level. Additionally, U.S. businesses are playing an active role in COP, since they can learn how rules and norms set by other governments will impact global markets.

Bach

• U.S. policymakers should be concerned about foreign competition, since not engaging in COP is holding business back. 
• Since the United States did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, China is leading in solar energy, taking the opportunity to develop with investments from European countries.

 

Q: Is there a recent topic or issue that will get relatively more attention at COP that has not received attention at previous COPs?

Bach

• Agriculture may come up more in relation to this COP’s focus on tropical forests due to the relationship between the two.
• The COP30 agenda is also increasingly highlighting health as an important issue, especially with the World Health Organization and medical schools attending COP30.
• The climate champion for Brazil, Dan Ioschpe, is a private sector participant who is helping mobilize voluntary climate action from non-state actors. Ioschpe and his team, along with 30 activation groups with specific goals, are working together on public, practical climate solutions by coordinating 300 initiatives launched at previous COPs.

Durham Shane

• There is a clear interest in limiting methane and other superpollutant emissions from China and other countries.
• The topic of which country will take on the COP31 presidency will also be a major discussion area at COP30. Currently, Australia and Turkey are competing for the presidency, and a decision will need to be made before COP30 ends, or it will default to being held in Bonn, Germany, where the UNFCCC secretariat is located.

 

Compiled by Olivia Benedict and Hailey Morris and edited for clarity and length. This is not a transcript.