Climate Change News - July 12, 2010

CBO: Kerry-Lieberman Climate Bill Would Cut Deficit by $19 Billion

On July 7, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that if enacted, the Kerry-Lieberman climate bill, the American Power Act, would cut the deficit by $19 billion over the 2011 to 2020 period. In the four decades after 2020, the legislation would not increase the deficit. “Today, the Congressional Budget Office has sent Congress a powerful message: our comprehensive energy and climate bill will slash America’s deficit by over $19 billion,” said Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT). “There is no more room for excuses – this must be our year to pass comprehensive climate and energy legislation and begin to send a price signal on carbon. Many of our colleagues have said they flatly oppose anything that adds a penny to the deficit, so we hope they look anew at this initiative which reduces it.” CBO estimates that enacting the Kerry-Lieberman bill would increase revenues and direct spending by $751 billion and $732 billion, respectively, over the 2011 to 2020 period.

For additional information see: Sen. Kerry Press Release , UPI , AP , CBO Press Release

EPA Proposes Rule for Emissions from Power Plants

On July 7, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a rule which would cut carbon emissions from power plants. The “transport rule” would focus on power plant pollution in 31 eastern states and the District of Columbia to help them attain national ambient air quality standards. “This rule is designed to cut pollution that spreads hundreds of miles and has enormous negative impacts on millions of Americans,” said Lisa P. Jackson, EPA Administrator. “We’re working to limit pollution at its source, rather than waiting for it to move across the country. The reductions we’re proposing will save billions in health costs, help increase American educational and economic productivity, and – most importantly – save lives.” By 2014, the rule is expected to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 71 and 52 percent, respectively. This rule follows on the heels of a settlement with environmental groups in which the EPA agreed to revise air pollution rules for 28 industry sectors within eight years. The EPA is required by the settlement to begin issuing new standards and proposed rules for each of the 28 industry sectors by September.

For additional information see: Wall Street Journal , AFP , New York Times , UPI

EIA: U.S. CO2 Emissions to Rise 3.2 Percent This Year

On July 7, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its July Short-Term Energy Outlook, which indicated that total U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to increase by 3.2 percent in 2010 and by 1.6 percent in 2011. In 2009, CO2 emissions had decreased by seven percent compared to the previous year. CO2 emissions are expected to increase in 2010 because of “forecast economic growth combined with increased use of coal and natural gas in the electric power sector,” according to the EIA. “Increased demand for petroleum in the transportation sector (motor gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel), combined with continued electric-power-sector coal demand growth” are expected to drive the increase in CO2 emissions in 2011. This month’s figures are up from June’s predictions of a 2.9 percent rise and a 1.4 percent rise in CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Despite these forecasted increases, the EIA projects that the predicted CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2011 will still be lower than the annual emissions from 1999 to 2008.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , EIA Press Release

Major Economies Forum Concludes Climate Talks in Rome

From June 30 to July 1, the Major Economies Forum held climate talks in Rome. Attendees included representatives from the 17 major economies and officials from the United Nations, Bangladesh, Denmark, Barbados, Ethiopia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. This summit was enlarged to include developing countries such as Ethiopia and Bangladesh because such countries are expected to be hit particularly hard by the effects of climate change. The issues discussed include reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, funding for climate change mitigation efforts, plans for adaptation and methods to monitor progress. The summit concluded with no breakthroughs, said Italian Environment Minister Stefania Prestigiacomo. The failure of December’s Copenhagen summit to produce a concrete agreement to reduce GHG emissions has raised awareness that “conditions aren’t there for a global accord,” Prestigiacomo said. Disagreements between developed and developing countries over how the costs of GHG emissions reduction will be distributed between countries also surfaced during the Rome climate talks. “It is critical that we arrive at an operational set of formulae on equity, based primarily on cumulative per capita emissions,” said Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh. A draft text produced by climate talks in Bonn in early June did not address the concerns of developing countries in that it focused on measures to reduce GHG emissions without addressing equity issues, Ramesh said.

For additional information see: AP , Times of India , Hindustan Times , Major Economies Forum Press Release

China to Host Round of Climate Talks Before UN Meeting in Cancun

On July 5, United Nations Under-Secretary General Achim Steiner announced that in October, China will host a last round of climate talks in Tianjin before the next major climate talks begin in Cancun, Mexico this November. “China will introduce some new ideas and opportunities to move the negotiation forward,” Steiner said. It is hoped that the talks in Tianjin will help smooth the way for countries to agree on at least the broad outlines of a treaty at Cancun. “The extra session was added as all believe more preparatory talks would help nations reach more agreements during the year-end negotiations, on which great hope is built,” said He Jiankun, vice-chairman of the China Experts Panel on Climate Change. Many countries have been working to put aside and work through the disagreements which surfaced at Copenhagen last December, but “fruitful results in Cancun rely on efforts from all members,” Steiner said. At this time, it is expected that Cancun will not result in a legally binding treaty and that climate talks in South Africa in late 2011 are more likely to produce such a treaty.

For additional information see: AFP , Reuters , Xinhua News , People's Daily Online

Dutch Agency Finds Errors Do Not Undermine Key Findings of IPCC Report

On July 5, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) released its review of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The review found that the errors found in the IPCC report do not undermine its key findings. The inquiry did identify errors in the report, including incorrect statements about the melt-rate of Himalayan glaciers and estimates of the percentage of the Netherlands which is below sea level, and criticized the IPCC for its tendency to emphasize the worst-case scenarios and for its lack of transparency. The PBL suggested that in future reports, the IPCC improve transparency in how scientists arrived at their conclusions, balance worst-case scenarios with a wide range of the effects of climate change, improve quality control efforts to reduce errors by hiring assistants to review the reports, and increasing the number of people involved in report-writing. “We welcome the conclusions of the report, which is essentially that our conclusions are safe, sound and reliable,” said Martin Parry, co-chair of Working Group II of the fourth report, in response to the PBL’s review. “The IPCC is about to venture into the next assessment, so it’s important we learn from these issues, and it’s important not to be defensive. That’s how the IPCC is approaching things now.”

For additional information see: PBL Press Release , IPCC Press Release , Scotsman , Guardian , AP

'Climategate' Scientists Cleared of Manipulating Data

On July 7, the British Independent Climate Change Email Review panel cleared the “Climategate” scientists of the charge that they had manipulated climate data. The panel also said that the conclusions of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are not weakened by the emails which were hacked and posted online this past November. “On the specific allegations made against the behavior of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) scientists, we find that their rigor and honesty as scientists are not in doubt,” the review said. However, the report also said that “there has been a consistent pattern of failing to display the proper degree of openness” and that the CRU scientists have been too ready to dismiss criticism of their work and too unwilling to comply with Britain’s Freedom of Information laws. The conclusions of this review reinforce the conclusions of the previous two reviews which were released in March and April. “We hope that commentators will accurately reflect what this highly detailed independent report says, and finally lay to rest the conspiracy theories, untruths and misunderstandings that have circulated,” said Edward Acton, vice-chancellor of the University of East Anglia.

For additional information see: Guardian , BBC News , AFP , New York Times

Germany Announces Plan for Zero-Carbon Electricity by 2050

On July 7, the German Federal Environment Agency announced that by 2050 it could receive all of its electricity from renewable energy. “A complete conversion to renewable energy by 2050 is possible from a technical and ecological point of view,” said Jochen Flasbarth, president of the Federal Environment Agency. “It’s a very realistic target based on technology that already exists – it’s not a pie-in-the-sky prediction.” Currently, Germany gets 16 percent of its energy from solar, wind and other renewable power sources, and it is the largest producer of solar power and the second-largest wind power producer after the United States. The German government’s goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 percent from 1990 to 2020 and by 80 to 85 percent by 2050 are achievable if it transitions to renewable energy sources by 2050, Flasbarth stated. The transition would have economic benefits for Germany in that it would create jobs and help Germany’s manufacturing industry. “The costs of a complete switch to renewable are a lot less than the costs to future generations that climate change will cause,” said Flasbarth.

For additional information see: Reuters , BusinessGreen

Carbon Price, Not Targets, Best to Tackle Climate Change, Lowy Institute Report Says

On July 7, a report was released by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, indicating that the best method of addressing climate change would be for the biggest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters to adopt common carbon prices which rise over time. “We think that a price-based international framework is better suited to achieving rapid reductions in global emissions,” the report said. “The price-based policy framework we advocate builds upon commitments made by countries under the Copenhagen Accord, but encourages the expansion and implementation of those commitments in accordance with goals and principles that comport with those the majority of States (and all major emitters) have either explicitly endorsed or would be likely to agree to. . . .” The study also suggested that the Major Economies Forum, composed of 17 of the world’s largest emitters, ought to coordinate this effort rather than the United Nations (UN) because the UN process is too slow and has not delivered an action plan to combat climate change. “The sheer urgency of weaning the world off carbon means we also sorely need a framework for international climate policy that provokes immediate, progressive responses from governments, businesses and citizens, while fostering the trust and co-operation among countries that will be essential for a sufficient and fair long-term mitigation effort,” the report said. “In our view, the framework must be built from the bottom up – outside, but in parallel with, the ongoing UN process.”

For additional information see: The Australian , Lowy Institute Press Release , Sydney Morning Herald

Western Climate Group Sees Carbon Cuts and Savings

On July 7, the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), which is made up of seven U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, released an updated economic analysis of its regional plan to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The analysis shows that the plan would reduce emissions 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and could achieve approximately $100 billion in savings between 2012 and 2020. “The cost savings are attributed to increased energy efficiency and reduced fuel consumption. The plan will also stimulate investment and innovation in a green economy, spur the creation of green jobs within the WCI region, and result in a cleaner environment,” the WCI said. “The estimated savings are modest (less than 0.2 percent) relative to the combined size of the WCI Partner jurisdiction economies, but they underscore that mitigation of GHG emissions and the move to a clean-energy economy can be achieved without negatively impacting the regional economy.”

For additional information see: WCI Press Release , Reuters

Ocean Acidification May Threaten Replenishment of Fish Populations

On July 6, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences revealed that ocean acidification may threaten the replenishment of fish populations. The study used “a combination of laboratory and field-based experiments to show that levels of dissolved [carbon dioxide] CO2 predicted to occur in the ocean this century alter the behavior of larval fish and dramatically decrease their survival during recruitment to adult populations.” Current atmospheric CO2 levels are at about 390 ppm, but at 700 parts per million (ppm) CO2, larval fish frequently became attracted to the scent of predators and at 850 ppm CO2 (level the researchers estimated the ocean would reach by the end of the century), the larvae could no longer sense predators. At these high levels of CO2, larvae had five to nine times higher mortality from predation than they do at today’s levels of CO2. “It seems that the fish lose their ability to discriminate between odors and are less repelled by odors they would normally avoid,” said Philip Munday, co-author of the study. “It suggests that levels of carbon dioxide predicted to occur at the end of this century could affect replenishment of fish stocks and have added consequences for pressures already put on fisheries.”

For additional information see: Science News , LA Times , Study Abstract

Two Studies Highlight Water's Key Role in Plant CO2 Uptake

On July 5, two studies were published in Science which highlighted water’s key role in plant carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake. Plants “fix” CO2 through photosynthesis and release the CO2 through respiration. “Our results suggest that the availability of water, in particular, plays a decisive role for the carbon cycle in ecosystems,” Markus Reichstein, co-author of both studies, said of the study on the earth’s gross CO2 uptake. “With the aid of suitable models it is then possible to calculate how climate change could affect the respiration of the ecosystems and the global carbon cycle.” While the rate of photosynthesis of plants in different ecosystems was influenced by varying factors, water played the most important role in determining how much CO2 the plants absorb. Forty percent of the earth’s plants absorb more CO2 when more water is available. The second study indicated that an increase in temperature does not cause a large increase in the amount of CO2 plants release. An increase of ten degrees in temperature causes less than a doubling of plant respiration rates, whereas previous studies had found respiration rates had increased by factors of three to four. “Our key finding is that the short-term temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to air temperature is converging to a single, global value,” said Miguel Mahecha, co-author of the study on the temperature sensitivity of respiration. “Contrary to previous studies, we show that the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to temperature variations seems to be independent from external factors and constant across ecosystems.” The findings of the two studies will help scientists make increasingly exact approximations of how ecosystems respond to climate change.

For additional information see: Max Planck Society Press Release , Beer Study Abstract , Mahecha Study Abstract , Science Daily , Irish Times