Environmental and Economic Impacts of Super El Niño

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing about the environmental and economic impacts of Super El Niño. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every few years when the ocean waters of the equatorial Pacific warm beyond normal temperatures. The 2026-2027 Super El Niño is projected to be the largest in 150 years and is expected to result in more frequent and intense extreme weather events across the United States and the world. This briefing examined the meteorological causes and anticipated impacts of Super El Niño, including flooding, droughts, extreme heat, wildfires, and severe winter storms.

 

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

El Niño is defined by above-average water temperatures in the Central-Eastern Tropical Pacific. An El Niño becomes a “Super El Niño” when water temperatures reach at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average. This early in the phenomenon’s timeline, the 2026-2027 Super El Niño is already the strongest in recorded history, with waters in the eastern tropical Pacific reaching up to 5-6°C (9-10.8°F) above normal.  In the United States, the incoming Super El Niño is projected to bring the warmest winter on record. The Super El Niño will also bring winter storms across the east coast, high precipitation to the country’s southern tier (Southern California to Florida), a quieter and delayed hurricane season in the Atlantic, and a hotter, drier summer in 2027. It has also already brought a hyperactive hurricane season to the Pacific.  These patterns will have both positive and negative ramifications for the United States, including lower U.S. energy prices and demand, increased risk of flood and coastal erosion, reduced wind and solar generation, and higher prices for food imports. Although global weather forecasting models predicted this Super El Niño without any AI use, AI has been helping experts build more comprehensive and credible forecasting data.

 

Rep. Mike Flood, U.S. Representative (R-Neb.), Co-chair, Congressional Weather Enterprise Caucus

• Reps. Flood and Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) launched the Congressional Weather Enterprise Caucus in July 2026 to bring greater attention to the Weather Enterprise and the weather forecasting and research tools that save lives, support farmers, keep businesses running, protect infrastructure, and help communities prepare for severe weather events.
• Rep. Flood joined a bipartisan coalition to introduce the Weather Workforce Improvement Act (H.R.3809), which provides greater job security and incentives to retain critical National Weather Service employees. He is also leading the bipartisan NOAA Weather Radio Modernization Act (H.R.7813) to ensure Nebraskans have reliable weather information when they need it most. 
• Extreme weather has caused home insurance premiums to skyrocket. Better weather data will allow insurance and reinsurance companies to better price risk, increasing transparency across the industry. The only way to bring down home insurance premiums is to abate the risk, such as by using resilient building materials. Risk abatement is something the Congressman will be focusing on in the next 12 months, and he invites experts and stakeholders to participate in the conversation.

 

Rep. Eric Sorensen, U.S. Representative (D-Ill.), Co-chair, Congressional Weather Enterprise Caucus

• It is important for policymakers to understand the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process, including the irregularity in the heating of the equatorial Pacific. 
• The impacts of a Super El Niño on severe weather, drought, and temperature are particularly relevant to farmers, like those in Western Illinois, as extreme weather can impact production. 

 

Matt Rogers, President, Meteorologist, and Co-Founder, Commodity Weather Group, LLC; Contributor, Capital Weather

• El Niño is defined by above-average water temperatures in the Central-Eastern Tropical Pacific. An El Niño becomes a “Super El Niño” when water temperatures reach at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average. In September 2026, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific reached up to 5-6°C above normal. This early in the phenomenon’s timeline, the 2026-2027 Super El Niño is already stronger than the three that came before it, in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. 
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Climate Forecast System was able to predict this Super El Niño in late winter and early spring of 2026. Meteorologists also rely on global climate models, surface and subsurface water temperature measurements, and trade wind measurements to forecast El Niños.
• El Niño’s warmer waters impact jet stream patterns and weather patterns. Super El Niño impacts vary globally, and can bring from warmer, drier, wetter, or cooler weather depending on the region. While this Super El Niño will not negatively impact U.S. crops, coffee, sugar, and palm oil crops in southeast Asia; corn in South Africa; wheat in northern Australia; and sugar, corn, and coffee in South America will be affected, and U.S. citizens and farmers will see higher prices for those imports.
• Super El Niño is also lowering water levels in the Panama Canal, impacting global shipping.
• In the United States, El Niño tends to cause warmer winters, with the potential for snap snowstorms in the coldest months. El Niños also fuel winter storms up and down the east coast. The 2026-2027 Super El Niño is projected to bring the warmest winter on record to the United States, which can lower U.S. energy prices and demand. The southern tier of the United States, from Southern California to Florida, will also see high precipitation. This Super El Niño may also bring snow to the Pacific Northwest.
• In North America, Super El Niño is causing a hyperactive hurricane season in the Pacific. Many of those storms are falling over Hawaii. Conversely, the Atlantic Ocean is experiencing a record quiet hurricane season, with the first hurricane of the season forming historically late on October 7, 2026. 
• An El Niño cycle tends to lead into a La Niña cycle. Stronger El Niños tend to flip more quickly into La Niñas, bringing hotter and drier U.S. summers that in turn create very active hurricane seasons. The summer following the 2015-2016 Super El Niño was the hottest on record at the time. 
• According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, many U.S. regions—including the interior West, the Pacific Northwest, Texas, and the Southern Plains—still faced considerable drought in September 2026. Super El Niño’s wet pattern across the southern United States should bring some relief to those dry regions and bolster reservoirs in the West, but also bring flood risk and coastal erosion. It will also reduce wind and solar generation this winter in those areas, which typically have among the highest renewable energy generation.
• Forecasts are always predictions, and while meteorologists can make the above predictions with the information they have, it does not mean that it will necessarily occur. For example, the La Niña expected next year may not hit as hard, or as early, as predictions suggest. 

 

Doug Hilderbrand, Executive Director, American Weather Enterprise Association (AWEA) 

• The Weather Enterprise spans researchers and policymakers at federal agencies, industry such as multimedia and communications groups, and universities and research labs working to advance emerging research.
• AWEA members make critical daily contributions to weather forecasting. Some members focus on weather observations like balloon observations; others host ground stations or satellites, conduct modelling, or advance emerging research, or lead weather communication efforts.
• According to the American Meteorological Society, weather and climate information has brought more than $100 billion in value to the U.S. economy and a tenfold return on taxpayer investment. One third of the economy is directly weather- or climate-sensitive.
• There is also incredible international collaboration, including through U.N. mechanisms, to ensure consistency and consensus on weather data and forecasting.
• Oftentimes forecasting groups can disagree on their predictions, but they work together to find a shared, accurate forecast that they can share and people can rely on. 
• The 119th Congress is working on a number of bills to strengthen the Weather Enterprise: 
  • The Weather Act Reauthorization Act of 2025 (H.R.5089) would reauthorize NOAA’s core weather programs. Reps. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) lead the bill, which the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology advanced in September 2026.
  • The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act of 2026 (S.3923), led by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), would fund next-generation radar and weather forecasting and expand commercial weather data partnerships. The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation advanced the bill in September 2026.
  • Rep. Eric Sorensen’s (D-Ill.) National Weather Safety Board Act (H.R. 7848) aims to prompt an investigation into, and recommendations for, major weather disasters.
  • Other bills include the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Recapitalization Act (S.4802), the NOAA Weather Radio Modernization Act (H.R.7813), the Radar Next Program Act of 2026 (S.3795), the Wildfire Response and Preparedness Act (S.902), and the Cooperative Institute Act of 2026 (S.5332). 
• The Weather Enterprise Caucus has garnered 18 members since its founding in July 2026, and is seeking opportunities for partnerships and strengthening collective resilience. 

 

Q&A

 

Q: Once meteorologists start to detect signs of a Super El Niño, how can they work together to broadcast that information across the country and internationally? How has that network of information sharing changed or improved with the increased frequency of these events? 

Rogers

• Information exchange is everywhere. Communication starts occurring in message boards, listservs, and in back-and-forth conversations between meteorologists. These pathways help develop consensus.
• The fact that models were able to call the 2026-2027 Super El Niño very early is a testament to how much modelling has improved over the last decade. And now, we have more data sources than ever before.

Hilderbrand

• We have reached a point where we can inform communities and decision-makers about Super El Niño impacts months before they happen. Municipal services can plan for salting roads, and ski resorts can determine whether or when to supply artificial snow. 
• Strengthening the Weather Enterprise can help alleviate the impacts of extreme weather events. 

 

Q: How much of El Niño’s increasing frequency and intensity is attributable to climate change? Is there consensus that mitigating emissions could weaken the impacts of future El Niño events? 

Rogers

• Evidence shows that climate change is worsening the intensity of El Niño events. An increased global temperature means the baseline water temperature in the Central-Eastern Pacific is already higher, which also means that La Niñas will never get as strong, since they require cold water temperatures.

Hilderbrand

• Weather is naturally and uniquely bipartisan. Natural disasters do not pay attention to a state’s political affiliation. It is a critical issue for all parties to work on.

 

Q: There is uncertainty about this Super El Niño and future El Niños. How can the Bipartisan Weather Enterprise Caucus put forward proactive policy designed for upcoming challenges with respect to extreme weather?

Hilderbrand

• The goal of both the Caucus and AWEA is to put a spotlight on the importance of weather forecasting and communication. They also highlight the need for public-private partnership and investment.
• Getting the mission of the Weather Enterprise on the minds of Congress and the Administration has been extremely valuable over the last year. In this new era of climate and extreme weather risk, having a Weather Enterprise Caucus that can bring in experts, talk big ideas, craft legislation, and support public-private partnerships is good governance at work. 

 

Q: What role has artificial intelligence (AI) played in forecasting the impacts of Super El Niño? Is the increased time we had to prepare for this Super El Niño the result of improvements in AI technologies? Has interest in AI also translated into interest in weather? 

Rogers

• Global weather forecasting models, like NOAA’s CFS model, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), season outlooks, and the UK Met Office, predicted this Super El Niño without any AI use. 
• Commodity Weather Group has been working with NVIDIA's and Google’s AI models. The newest Google model, WeatherNext 3, is able to provide hourly forecasting. ECMWF is improving the initial conditions of a weather model by using AI to create more credible estimates of missing data.

Hilderbrand

• AI is and will be a part of the Weather Enterprise. But it is one tool in the toolbox, not the toolbox itself. There are areas where it thrives, but foundationally, it cannot fill in for on-the-ground observations, the experience of forecasters, and local knowledge. AI also cannot replace risk communication and action components. What are people doing to prepare? What are businesses doing to be more competitive or make their supply chains more resilient to disaster?

 

Compiled by Parthav Easwar and edited for clarity and length. This is not a transcript.