Climate Change in the American Mind

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing discussing Americans' evolving perceptions of climate change. Americans have diverse and sometimes opposing views about climate change, which can fundamentally shape the political discourse around climate action. Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, the featured speaker, explained recent trends in Americans' climate change knowledge, attitudes, policy support, and behavior and discuss strategies to build public and political will for climate action. He discussed how voter attitudes towards climate change and clean energy influenced the 2018 mid-terms and may influence the 2020 election cycle.

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Director, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University

Watch our interview of Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz

• Scientists have come to a consensus that climate change is real and is a direct result of human actions. While the situation is bad, there is still hope. [According to Dr. Leiserowitz, the 5 key ideas about climate change are: (1) Scientists agree… (2) It's real. (3) It's us. (4) It's bad… (5) …but there's hope!]
• It is not enough to understand that there is a threat and risk associated with climate change. As a society, we need to talk about what can be done and what is currently already being done to combat climate change.
• Currently, 73 percent of Americans think that global warming is happening, an all-time high. However, the United States remains a laggard compared to other countries when it comes to the proportion of individuals who think climate change is occurring (e.g., 95 percent of the Japanese think that climate change is underway).
• In 2010, the percent of Americans who think global warming was happening was at its lowest point in the past decade (57 percent). This can largely be attributed to the rise of the Tea Party.
• Recent data show that 62 percent of Americans think that global warming is mostly human-caused.
• 69 percent of Americans are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, an 8 point jump from November 2016. However, only 29 percent of people are “very worried.” Many people are not “very worried” because they see climate change as a distant problem, in time and space.
• One cannot simply divide the population into climate change “believers” and “deniers.” Instead, there are “six Americas:” those who are alarmed, concerned, cautious, disengaged, doubtful or dismissive with regards to climate change.
  • The largest group, at 30 percent, are those who are “concerned.” It is closely followed by those who are "alarmed" at 29 percent.
  • Four out of ten people on Earth (but just 5 percent in America) are “disengaged” and have never heard about climate change. They are able to see the effects of climate change, but they do not understand its causes and how human actions directly contribute to global temperature rise.
  • A large majority of individuals from Central and South America see climate change as a high priority concern and one that can personally affect them.
  • Only 9 percent of the population is “dismissive” of global warming. But because they are highly vocal and well represented in Congress and the Administration, it appears as if much more of the population is dismissive of climate change.
  • In the past five years, the percentage of those who are “alarmed” about climate change has gone up 15 points while the percentage of those who are “dismissive” has gone down 5 points.
• 54 percent of Democrats think global warming should be a “very high” priority for the President and Congress while only seven percent of Republicans think this.
• At the time of the 2018 midterm elections, global warming was the fourth most important voting issue for liberal Democrats. It was voting issue #16 for moderate Democrats, #23 for liberal republicans, and last (#28) for conservative Republicans.
• Today, climate change is now considered the second most important voting issue among liberal Democrats. Because it has become such a high priority issue for the Democratic base, there are more discussions about climate change in Congress.
• Though the parties disagree about the reality and/or causes of climate change, a social consensus that overcomes party lines exists when it comes to supporting climate-friendly energy policies.
  • 88 percent of all registered voters support more funding for R&D into renewable energy such as solar and wind power (95 percent of Democrats and 81 percent of Republicans support such research).
  • 85 percent of voters support tax rebates for those who purchase energy efficient vehicles or solar panels, and 79 percent think that carbon dioxide should be regulated as a pollutant.
• Over the last five years, support for funding renewable energy research has increased among all voters. The biggest increase in support, up 30 percentage points, has come from conservative Republican voters.
• Pollsters often ask whether respondents would prefer more economic growth at the expense of environmental protection, or vice-versa. However, evidence shows that clean energy and economic growth go hand-in-hand. Most Americans recognize this: 58 percent of Americans think that policies that promote clean energy will not only improve economic growth but will create more jobs as well.
• Before the 116th Congress, 80 percent of Americans did not know what the Green New Deal was. When the Deal's goals were explained in December 2018, 81 percent of voters (including 64 percent of Republicans) supported the initiative. Today, after intense media coverage of the proposed Green New Deal, it would seem public support has weakened but still remains strong, despite partisan attacks (results of a new poll are pending).
• Among all registered voters, 85 percent support requiring electric utilities to use 100 percent clean, renewable energy by 2050. There is large bipartisan support, with 95 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans in favor of this goal.
• Voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports requiring utilities to use 100 percent clean, renewable energy. This is true for 54 percent of all registered voters.
• Yale Climate Opinion Maps were developed to measure public opinion on climate change at the state, local and Congressional district levels. The maps are based on models, but local polls were conducted in several locations which have verified the model's validity.
  • There is a lot of variation at the county level in the percentage of adults who are worried about global warming in 2018. Results show that there are just as many counties worried about climate change in Texas as there are in California.
  • Every single Congressional district has a majority of adults who think that global warming will harm future generations. On the other hand, every single Congressional district has a majority of adults who don’t believe that the effects of global warming will harm them personally.
• According to Dr. Leiserowitz, as a society we do not talk about climate change nearly as much as we should. We risk falling into the “spiral of silence.” We need to talk about climate change if we want to create change.

 

Do you have any explanations as to why the support for solutions to climate change is so much stronger than the belief in the problem?

• Climate change is the mother of all collective action problems. Large systemic changes need to take place, with all sections of society working to solve the problem together. That can only be done through government. Beyond our country, there needs to be cooperation on the global stage as well.
• But a large share of the population is philosophically opposed to such large-scale government action, and so refuses to acknowledge the need for climate action. People are prone to solution aversion, in which they reject solutions that do not support their values. In such cases, they are likely to reject the legitimacy of the problem itself.
• Some policies, such as selling residential solar energy back to the grid, can unite both climate change activists and deniers. For example, environmental activists and tea partiers in Georgia joined forces (forming the "green tea party") to pressure the local utility into paying for the solar energy generated by private households.
• Messengers matter. If individuals do not like the messenger, they are less likely to hear about or support the proposal.

 

Do you believe there will be a climate movement on the same scale as the MeToo and BlackLivesMatter movements?

• There is a possibility that a large-scale climate movement is materializing right now. Climate change has been widely discussed in the past couple of weeks, especially following the introduction of the Green New Deal. Just by talking about the issue and seeing public figures pledge to address it, individuals are becoming more aware and active.

 

What are your recommendations for talking about climate change and possible solutions?

• Solutions are not always about getting individuals to take action. Solutions also involve getting individuals to become politically active and speak up about climate change. Taking action at the local, state, and federal level, and putting pressure on politicians will help encourage communities to adopt climate solutions.

 

Yale University research has found that six in ten Americans are now either “Alarmed” or “Concerned” about global warming. The proportion of respondents categorized as “Alarmed” has more than doubled from 2013 to 2018. Inversely, the shares of those who are Dismissive (9 percent) and Doubtful (9 percent) have both fallen significantly in the past 5 years. According to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, the "Alarmed" now outnumber the "Dismissive" more than three to one (29 percent vs. 9 percent), whereas they were tied at 14 percent each in 2013.

Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz is an expert on public opinion and engagement with respect to the issues of climate change and the environment. His research investigates the psychological, cultural, and political factors that influence environmental beliefs, attitudes, policy support, and behavior. He conducts research at the global, national, and local scales, including many surveys of the American public. He also conducted the first study of worldwide public values, attitudes, and behaviors regarding sustainability, including environmental protection, economic prosperity, and human development. He has served as a consultant to the John F. Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University), the United Nations Development Program, the Gallup World Poll, and the World Economic Forum. He is a recipient of the Friend of the Planet Award from the National Center for Science Education and a Mitofsky Innovator Award from the American Association of Public Opinion Research. He is also the host of Climate Connections, a daily national public radio program and podcast.