Rapid Readout: The Economic Impacts of Repealing the Endangerment Finding

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a Rapid Readout about the consequences of the recent repeal of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) 2009 Endangerment Finding for the economy, climate, and public health. The Endangerment Finding established that greenhouse gases are warming the planet and endangering public health and welfare. For 17 years, this determination has served as the basis for EPA regulations limiting industrial and vehicle emissions.

Now, the repeal is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on energy markets and the U.S. economy more broadly. According to an EPA analysis, this repeal could cost Americans up to $1.5 trillion, negating any potential savings from deregulation. This readout outlined projected ripple effects on the U.S. economy and identified possible paths forward.

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The Endangerment Finding is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) assessment that greenhouse gases (GHGs) pose a threat to human health and welfare. The Finding was officially announced in December 2009 by the EPA, following its loss in the Massachusetts v. EPA (2007) Supreme Court ruling. The Finding compelled the EPA to regulate automobile emissions to protect public health. This was followed by GHG regulations for the power sector, as well as for gas and oil production, leading to a reduction in GHG emissions. On February 12, 2026, the EPA decided to repeal the Endangerment Finding and associated vehicle regulations. The EPA did a cost-benefit analysis of its decision to repeal the Endangerment Finding and roll back automobile regulations. In four scenarios out of eight, it found Americans would save about $1.3 trillion over the next decade. However, the costs of repeal to Americans would range between $400 billion and $1.4 trillion, and that is without taking into account the climate and healthcare costs associated with higher pollution, which the EPA no longer evaluates. According to the EPA, the repeal could lead to a net cost of $180 billion to Americans in its high-cost scenario. Because vehicle manufacturers have long planning cycles, the repeal of the Endangerment Finding and its associated automobile regulations—as well as other recent changes like the rollback of electric vehicle tax credits—will not have a near-term impact on car and truck costs.  The final rule repealing the Endangerment Finding does not undermine its underlying scientific basis, nor does it challenge climate science. Instead, it is a legal argument that the EPA does not have the authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate GHG emissions from vehicles and trucks. On March 19, 2026, 24 states, 10 cities, and five counties challenged this repeal, and the case could reach the Supreme Court.  Congress can always create new legislation to compel the EPA to regulate GHG emissions.