Weather and Climate Change: Impacting Bioenergy Production Now and In the Future

The drought and heat seem to have moved from Texas, last year, to the lower Midwest, this year. A good portion of what was to be a bumper corn crop is now in distress at critical pollination time, with no relief in sight. The price of corn has jumped back up and corn reserves are reaching new lows. Without rain and cooler temperatures soon, much of the corn crop may be lost, and, in turn, livestock and biofuel producers will suffer. As the United States shifts to using more bioenergy, we are increasingly looking to the skies for water not only to grow our food, feed and fiber, but also to fill our gas tanks and heat and power our homes and businesses.

The drought and heat in the Midwest—and its impact on corn and soybean production—is likely to become a much bigger news story in the weeks ahead. This was addressed at a recent Farm Foundation Forum "How Drought Reshapes Agriculture and Food Systems" June 27 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. For more on this, read "Drought May Rival 1980s U.S. Scorcher that Cost $78 Billion" from Bloomberg News . Also, check out the latest USDA weather and crop report . See especially the drought monitor on page 6.

This spring, millions more acres were put into corn and producers got an early, successful start to the planting season. With predictions of a bumper crop, the price of corn for December delivery dropped down to almost $5.00 per bushel, and it was expected to go even lower as the crop grew. However, with the lack of rain and rising temperatures in the lower Midwest, the price has jumped 20 percent in just the past three days to more than $6.40 per bushel, according to the Financial Times . At the start of the year, corn reserves were already at the lowest they have been in 15 years, according to the New York Times . These are key indicators of another price spike.

Are the soaring corn prices being driven by ethanol producers and biofuel policies? Many argue this, but is it true? Hardly. Ethanol production has been relatively flat or declining since the beginning of the year due to reduced U.S. demand for transportation fuels overall, and this trend is expected to continue, according to analyst Gerard Wynn at Reuters . The market for ten percent ethanol blends is saturated. Inventories are still high. Producers have been losing as much as 30 cents per gallon. Now, with sharply rising corn prices and a weak market for ethanol, many ethanol plants are being temporarily shut down. See these stories from Indiana, Nebraska , and Oregon . Ethanol production dropped another two percent last week, according to Reuters .

Rather, the weather and (likely) the effects of climate change are the prime factors driving up corn prices. As such, these factors have become prime constraints on the production of a significant portion of the nation’s transportation fuel supply. Further, in the weeks ahead, if the weather continues as is, other factors will likely pile on, including global market speculators, commodity hoarding, market-constricting policy responses from governments around the world, and continuing strong global demand for meat.

Are there lessons from this unfolding situation as the nation moves toward producing even more bioenergy? Should U.S. policies encourage making the fuel supply even more dependent than the petroleum sector already is on the vagaries of the weather and the effects of a changing climate?

Inevitably, weather extremes and the effects of a changing climate will put greater stress on all agricultural, forestry, and biomass production in the future. However, as a nation, one way we can hedge against this (in addition to reducing our use of fuels and improving the efficiency of our use of fuels) is with sound policies that encourage the development of many different types of sustainable biomass and bioenergy systems across the country. In this way, weather extremes and climate change impacts in one region can be balanced by production from other, unaffected regions. Every part of the country has its own capacity to sustainably produce bioenergy based upon its unique blend of natural resources and climate. The U.S. can become less dependent on the Midwest for its bioenergy (and the vagaries of the weather there) by increasing production elsewhere. Developing biomass feedstocks from agricultural, forestry, and urban residue streams, deep-rooted perennial grasses, agro-forestry systems, and algae can provide biomass feedstocks that are more resilient in the face of extreme weather and climate change.