Study Assesses Impacts of Spring Flooding and COVID-19 Pandemic on Rural Communities

Dr. Kristy Dahl and Dr. Juan Declet-Barreto from the Union of Concerned Scientists sat down with EESI’s policy team to discuss their new analysis on the multiple stressors facing communities as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerates in the United States. In our discussion, Dr. Dahl and Dr. Declet-Barreto focused on the spring flooding season in the Midwest and explored the impacts of flooding and the pandemic on rural communities—many of which are still recovering from last year’s intense flooding. 

Could you tell us about the flooding and COVID-19 analysis that the Union of Concerned Scientists just published?

Dr. Dahl: At the Union of Concerned Scientists, we typically don’t think about things like infectious diseases and epidemics, but we do think a lot about flooding and other related risks. We are always monitoring the forecasts that NOAA [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] puts out on a seasonal basis for things like spring flooding, hurricane seasons, and wildfire outlooks. But, of course, COVID-19 is on all of our minds, so when we saw the flood forecast NOAA released at the beginning of last week, our minds instantly went to the virus and the implications of those flood risks for communities that are struggling with high rates of the virus or seeing rapid increases. 

Our analysis identified counties where spring flooding and COVID-19 outbreaks are expected to collide in the coming months in order to draw attention to areas that should get extra attention in terms of emergency response.

Dr. Declet-Barreto: This study is also intended to bring attention to the data-centered approach in which we worked with NOAA data and with experts from Columbia University who provided the infection rate data for the analysis. 

How do you think the models generated by your analysis could be helpful in directing resources?

Dr. Declet-Barreto: One of the things that we set out to do here is to understand how more rural communities—that are not making the rounds in the media because they do not have populations like New York City and Los Angeles—are going to be able to obtain the resources they need. In the Midwest, they are still dealing with the impacts of catastrophic amounts of rain from last year. Many of these folks never really recovered. Now, they are faced with recovery, a pandemic, and a new round of spring flooding. 

As you described, many communities struck by COVID-19 in the Midwest are still rebuilding from last year’s record floods. How has the pandemic interrupted communities’ ability to rebuild ahead of this year’s anticipated floods?

Dr. Dahl: There was a press conference earlier this week given by the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative-- an organization of mayors from towns up and down the Mississippi River--and one mayor said that they are still waiting for funds from FEMA for last year’s flooding. They are basically in the red right now, so any spending they do on preparations for this year’s flooding is really affecting their bottom line and their ability to keep people safe, so we know that places are really still struggling. 

Dr. Declet-Barreto: A UCS blog post discusses the large agricultural losses in the Midwest due to flooding last year, which was manifested in insurance payouts from the Department of Agriculture. The fields flooded, the planting season was delayed for some farmers, and many farmers could not receive inputs like fertilizer because they could not transport those materials via the river. There were a lot of big impacts last year, especially for small farm owners who do not have the cash reserves, access to capital, or large insurance policies to cover these losses. 

Are there people that will be impacted disproportionately by the intersection of COVID-19 and spring flooding in the Midwest?

Dr. Declet-Barreto: We are very concerned about communities that are already hard pressed to deal with seasonal climate impacts such as spring flooding. What is going to happen when people need to be evacuated, especially elderly people whose mobility is constrained and people who have special needs? If they are taken to a shelter, are emergency managers going to have the capacity to keep people safe from both the virus and climate impacts? 

It is also important to note that a population that has gone under the radar right now is the significant farm worker population and other service workers who do not have legal citizenship in the country. Those folks are more exposed because if they can work, they are working (not sheltering), and if they cannot, they are not making money at home and they are not eligible for any sort of emergency or disaster assistance.

How do planners and policymakers, especially those focused on climate resilience, need to adapt their work to incorporate considerations around multiple risks, such as a pandemic and intense flooding? 

Dr. Dahl: Increasingly we are going to see the confluence of climate events and the sorts of things like pandemics that have happened throughout human history. As climate extremes become more frequent, there is just a greater chance that they are going to coincide with things like COVID-19. 

We have already seen this play out in limited instances. In California, during one of the recent wildfire seasons, one of the shelters that opened up had a massive norovirus outbreak. We are already starting to see how these things intersect. We need to recognize that they will increasingly intersect, and shape our responses accordingly. 

What policy recommendations do you have for federal, state, or local level officials to address this confluence of challenges?

Dr. Dahl: States right now are looking at the facilities they have that could be converted temporarily to emergency shelters for people impacted by flooding or converted to medical facilities. In either of these instances—emergency shelter or medical facility—there needs to be the possibility of isolating people who are sick and keeping other people at least six feet apart. This planning needs to be a high priority.

Our analysis has also identified regions within states that have particularly high risks, so when states receive resources from the federal government as a part of a stimulus package, states can make sure that resources are being allocated in proportion to the risks that people face.

Both state and local governments need to make sure that containment measures are in place. This is probably the biggest thing that people can do right now. Make sure that social distancing measures are being enforced, and that people are staying home as much as they possibly can.

 

The transcript has been edited for clarity and length.