New Study Shows Novel Way to Rapidly Decarbonize U.S. Economy | Article

The COVID-19 pandemic has decimated America’s economy, closing thousands of businesses and leaving millions of workers without jobs. In order to revitalize the economy, Rewiring America, a nonprofit that promotes electrification to combat climate change, believes a massive economic mobilization akin to the one that took place for World War II is required.

In their recent Rewiring America report, Mobilizing for a Zero Carbon America, Saul Griffith, Sam Calisch, and Alex Laskey model the complete electrification of every U.S. sector to reach total decarbonization by 2035. This decarbonization process, called the “Maximum Feasible Transition” (MFT), is said to achieve the global climate goal of limiting warming between 1.5 – 2 degrees Celsius while also producing millions of new jobs throughout the country. The report’s overall message rings out loud and clear: rapid decarbonization and electrification, though costly, result in substantial net positive job gains while preventing the worst impacts of climate change.

Most similar analyses begin with a predetermined emissions reduction target and then design an appropriate decarbonization strategy along a specified timeline. This study instead focuses solely on electrification, which simultaneously achieves carbon neutrality and emission reductions. Assuming no major efficiency or behavioral changes, the model, in a unique “bottom-up” approach, replaces every machine, technology, and appliance with an electrical substitute at the end of its natural life. The researchers predict such a rapid transition will cost around $20-25 trillion over 20 years. However, assuming supportive regulatory and economic policies, this societal transformation should produce favorable economic results. The study predicts 25 million peak new jobs, five million lasting jobs, and average household energy savings of $1,000 to $2,000 per year.

The proposed rapid electrification process would increase electricity demand from about 450 GW to 1,500-2,000 GW and result in massive investments in solar, wind, and nuclear power. Biofuels and fuel-generated electricity are assumed for sectors where electrification may not be possible, such as aviation, freight, and steelmaking. The expected efficiency gains through rapid electrification would cut the country’s overall primary energy demand by approximately half.

The shift towards an electric society would result in the elimination of jobs in the fossil fuel, automotive, and electric power industries. However, the massive escalation of renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and other electrified technologies would more than make up for those losses, mostly by creating millions of direct and indirect jobs in manufacturing and installation.

The authors estimated job creation across sectors during the decarbonization process by using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models. Figure 1 illustrates the growth of new clean energy jobs through 2040 if society aggressively pursues total decarbonization by 2035. Figure 2 looks at the total number of jobs in energy, which grows rapidly during the MFT scenario from over 17 million in 2020 to nearly 40 million peak jobs in 2025. Accounting for displaced and transitioned jobs, the study predicts fossil fuel-related jobs to sharply decline to zero near 2040, but the growth in clean energy jobs, new residential jobs, and other job types would lead to a significant net positive gain of 5 million jobs.

Figure 1 [Figure 8 from Rewiring America report]

Credit: Rewiring America

Figure 2 [Figure 9 from Rewiring America report]

Credit: Rewiring America

According to the study, residential households are expected to substantially benefit from decarbonization. Savings from electrification, clean energy technologies, and other decarbonization measures are expected to be over $1,000 a year per household. Because the report assumes current efficiency performance, any efficiency and automation improvements would greatly increase these household energy savings.

By 2030, the study expects nearly 17 percent of spending will be in the residential and residential efficiency sectors, as new electric appliances ranging from heat furnaces to home car chargers are installed. The report authors also assume distributed energy resources, such as rooftop and community solar, will make up 25 percent of the country’s energy supply.

While most of the report explores the economic and job impacts of the United States fully committing itself to decarbonization and electrification, Griffith, Calisch, and Laskey admit that most of the world must also follow suit. A global, not just national, decarbonization effort will be necessary if the planet is to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Author: Hamilton Steimer