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May 9, 2014
Climate change is something that’s often seen “as an issue that’s distant, affecting just polar bears or something that matters to our kids,” according to Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist, professor at Texas Tech University, and an author of the recently released National Climate Assessment. However, the report, released May 6, makes it increasingly clear that the effects of climate change are here and now –not only as sea level rise or urban heat waves, but in ways that will increasingly affect agricultural producers and rural areas as well.
The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) is the most comprehensive and transparent examination of peer-reviewed science on climate change impacts in the United States ever produced. According to the NCA, “Understanding global change is critical to our Nation’s welfare and economic vitality.” Thirteen federal agencies oversaw the completion of the work under the auspices of the Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). More than 240 scientists from across the public, private, nonprofit and academic sectors volunteered their time as authors. The NCA echoes the findings of the latest reports from the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which state with high certainty that emissions from human activities are causing global climate change. The report reveals that climate change is already impacting Americans across the country, and its effects are predominantly negative.
While climate change will increase the growing season for some crops, increased temperatures, especially under high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios will significantly challenge the U.S. agriculture sector’s ability to continue the overall trend of increasing yields and efficiencies. Hotter and drier years lead to lower yields -- corn and soybean yields in Indiana and Illinois have already dropped in recent years that have been hotter than average. The Southwest is already experiencing a trend towards drier, hotter days, which increases evaporation and stresses already strained western water systems. In the eastern part of the United States, heavier rains will increase. Climate change will also promote additional stressors to crop and livestock production, such as weeds, diseases and pests. The report also discusses the dire need for increased agricultural conservation methods - globally, soil quality and quantity is being lost at alarming rates due to heavy rains, floods and agricultural practices. It can take several hundreds of years to form 1 centimeter of topsoil.
For the first time, the report also discusses the impact of climate change on rural areas, since, according to the NCA “rural communities are highly dependent upon natural resources for their livelihoods and social structures.” While 95 percent of the U.S. land area is classified as rural, it holds only 19 percent of the U.S. population, despite providing much of the food, energy, water, forests, and recreation for the wider population. Rural economies will be especially impacted by climate change – not only because of their close relationship to natural systems, but also due to the aging population in rural communities, physical isolation, and high poverty rates. While many cities are being innovative in their approach to climate change adaptation, the report notes that rural governments have limited capacity to respond to and plan for the impacts of climate change due to the availability of fewer social services and resources as compared to urban areas.
EESI is hosting a series of briefings on the National Climate Assessment and climate impacts. On May 8, EESI held an event to give a general overview of the NCA on Capitol Hill. On May 22, EESI is holding a discussion of climate impacts in the Southeast, which is Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, as well as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Authors: Laura Small and Jessie Stolark
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