Japan’s Nuclear Crisis Affects German Energy Policy, Elections

The catastrophe taking place at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan has led to growing opposition to nuclear power in many countries, particularly in Germany, where more than 200,000 citizens participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration on March 26. Days after the March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami crippled the nuclear reactors in Fukushima, Japan, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a former advocate for nuclear energy, ordered the immediate shut down of the seven oldest of Germany’s 17 nuclear reactors, pending a three-month safety review. These reactors came online before 1980. She also issued a moratorium last week on her government’s plan to extend the operating life of the country’s nuclear plants 12 years past the original 2021 phase-out date that was set in place about a decade ago.

While the political dynamic in Germany is complex, many speculate to what degree the nuclear crisis in Japan affected two state elections held March 27. Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), lost nine seats in Baden-Wurttemburg and 11 in Rhineland-Palatinate. The Green Party, which is staunchly anti-nuclear, picked up 19 seats in Baden-Wurttemburg — more than double the 17 total seats they won in 2006—and 18 in Rhineland-Palatinate — where they had zero seats after the 2006 election. Although the CDU received the most votes (39 percent), there were not enough seats between that party and its preferred coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), to form a coalition government. The Greens will likely govern the state of Baden-Wurttemberg in a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), as well as appoint their first state governor, according to news sources. This, analysts say, will be a major factor in permanently steering Germany away from nuclear power. To what degree the Daiichi nuclear crisis turned voters against Merkel’s party is debatable. According to some news sources, 85 percent of voters “listed opposition to nuclear energy as among the reasons for changing their vote.” However, nuclear power has been more unpopular in Germany than other areas of the world ever since the Chernobyl reactor meltdown in the Ukraine (formerly U.S.S.R.) in 1986 spewed radioactivity across Germany.

Before the closure of the seven reactors, Germany obtained 24 percent of its electricity from nuclear, 17 percent from renewable energy, 13 percent from natural gas, and 40 percent from coal. Now the country must look even more to its non-nuclear resources. A recent Reuters analysis reported that utility traders filled 75 percent of the gap left by nuclear with coal, which equates to 45 million tons more of carbon emissions. However, how much coal will replace nuclear power is still a matter of speculation. "Our initial estimate of the impact of the nuclear reactors shutting was an additional 5 million tons of coal needed for Germany as a whole but now we think it's likely to be 3-4 million," a trader with a major German utility said.

According to some experts, a total replacement of Germany’s nuclear power capacity would cost an estimated $210 billion . Natural gas is an option, according to Guenther Oettinger , a former premier of Baden-Wurttemberg. But natural gas is largely supplied by Russia, and German leaders have expressed concern about dependency on the Russian state. As recently as last year, government sources estimated that approximately $28 billion per year would be needed in investment in renewable energy, much of which is predicted to be offshore wind power.

While Germany struggles to estimate the costs of phasing out its nuclear plants, the option of keeping them open also has a rising price tag due to stricter safety standards and regulations and the cost of a long-term disposal infrastructure for radioactive waste.