Bringing Sea Level Rise to the Surface at COP27 | Article

Around the world, rising sea levels are impossible to ignore. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2019 report, the global mean sea level is expected to rise between 1.41 feet and 2.76 feet by 2100, compared to 1986-2005 levels. By the 2050s, 800 million people are expected to live in cities along coasts with more than 1.6 feet of sea level rise—putting them at greater risk of flooding.

Sea level rise is expected to hit tropical and subtropical river deltas the hardest, areas that are often home to large port cities. One obvious case is Egypt—the nation is expected to see severe, potentially catastrophic effects of sea level rise. According to the United Nations, Egypt’s Nile Delta is one of the “world's most vulnerable areas when it comes to sea level rise.” It is also home to a quarter of the country’s population and contributes a fifth of Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP).

This vulnerability will be difficult to disregard this year, as Egypt is set to host the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November, in the coastal city of Sharm El-Sheikh. Even beyond Egypt’s own struggles with sea level rise, recent national and local plans for sea level rise mitigation, adaptation, and resilience are likely to make rising seas a key topic of conversation.

Loss, Damage, and Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise will be emphasized during several of COP27’s official thematic days. The day designations for Week 1 and Week 2 include Finance Day, Adaptation and Agriculture Day, and Water Day. Finance Day will address ways to scale up climate finance, which has become a hot topic for developing nations struggling with sea level rise and other climate impacts. Adaptation and Agriculture Day, meanwhile, plans to address coastal zone protection, while Water Day will address all aspects of water management, including early disaster warning systems.

But even outside these specific days, sea level rise is set to be a prominent topic, especially as the conference considers loss and damage—climate change impacts that cannot be adapted to.

In conversations about loss and damage, it is hard to ignore sea level rise—largely because the phenomenon is so alarmingly costly. One study found that in a business-as-usual emissions scenario, rising sea levels could cause $14.2 trillion of lost or damaged assets globally by 2100—equivalent to 20 percent of the world’s current annual GDP.

Spotlight on Small Island Developing States

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), a group of 58 United Nations member states and dependent territories, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea level rise. According to one study, SIDS are expected to experience proportionally worse economic losses from damage to critical infrastructure due to sea level rise than other nations. And losses are not limited to dollars and cents. An analysis indicates that climate change impacts like sea level rise are perceived to cause harm to people’s non-economic values like “dignity,” “human mobility,” and “self-determination and influence.” The harms to these values are perceived as particularly severe in the regions where SIDS are located. These nations are also more at risk for compound climate-related events, which involve multiple drivers or hazards. SIDS are not only more at risk, they also have fewer options: limited land availability restricts their ability to adapt and retreat from rising seas.

Designated as a distinct environmental and developmental group by the United Nations in 1992, SIDS already face challenges ranging from high import and export costs to hurricane vulnerability and biodiversity loss. In addition, many SIDS are facing crippling debt: out of the 37 SIDS nations, 31 are in a “critical debt situation.” With large debts, low economic diversification, and facing disproportionate impacts from climate hazards, SIDS have nevertheless barely received any funding for climate loss and damage—despite the promises of developed nations. Instead, the SIDS have paid 18 times more in debt repayments than they have received in climate finance. Some fear that without sufficient capital to invest in climate resilience, these countries could enter a vicious cycle where worsening climate change makes it harder for them to access capital and direct it toward resilience efforts.

Mohamed Nasheed, an ambassador for the Vulnerable 20 (V20) Group, which includes many coastal and island nations, recently warned of a potential repayment halt on those countries’ half a trillion dollars of debt if global lending is not reformed. The V20 nations have lost 20 percent of their collective wealth to climate change over the past 20 years. V20 officials have called for lending and climate finance reform, as well as support for their countries’ green growth plans.

Planning to Adapt

Countries and localities around the world have been diving deep into plans for adapting to the rising seas. Of course, it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet Paris Agreement climate targets and avoid the worst impacts of climate change and sea level rise. However, even if emissions are reduced, a certain amount of sea level rise will take place regardless, making it essential to adapt to its impacts.

Though not all countries have established or implemented adaptation plans, as sea levels rise, adaptive planning is becoming increasingly important. The national adaptation plan process, established under the UNFCCC, helps developing countries plan for medium- and long-term adaptation needs. Developed nations are releasing adaptation and climate change plans, too. National adaptation plans are intended to be participatory, transparent, and country-specific.

For the nation of Vanuatu, the funding required to adapt to sea level rise is top of mind. Vanuatu’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, or climate action plan to implement the Paris Agreement) calls for the establishment and deployment of an international Loss and Damage Finance Facility under the UNFCCC to fill financial gaps in addressing loss and damage. Vanuatu’s NDC commits to disaster prevention and response plans for high-risk coastal areas, minimizing loss and damage in public development projects by accounting for climate risks, considering planned relocation, and pursuing finance for climate change loss, damage, harm, and injury.

Egypt, the host of COP27, is also coming to the negotiations with a national climate change strategy. The strategy outlines promising steps to adapt to sea level rise, such as using mathematical modeling to plan new development communities away from climate risk zones, improving the resilience of roads to sea level rise, enacting integrated coastal zone management, and implementing flood protection measures.

Elsewhere in Africa, Liberia’s 2022 national adaptation plan refers to the dangers of sea level rise to the country, as it increases the risk of population displacement, infrastructure damage, crop loss, and loss of human life. The plan suggests adaptive measures like promoting flood-tolerant crops, developing a climate-proofing program for new infrastructure, constructing seawalls, and developing an early warning system with capacity development for coastal management.

New Zealand’s recent draft national adaptation plan specifically mentions sea level rise as a contributing factor to three of its top 10 most significant risks, namely risks to coastal ecosystems, risks to potable water supplies, and risks to buildings. The plan proposes actions like developing a climate risk assessment framework for buildings, ensuring building codes consider future climate hazards, financing future adaptation options for new development, and considering climate adaptation for its freight network.

In comparison, the United States has no such national strategy for adapting to sea level rise. In that vacuum, local governments are stepping up. Kaua’i county, in Hawaii, recently approved a bill to ensure that new development is sufficiently elevated above projected flood levels due to sea level rise. The city of San Francisco, California, is working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to study strategies to reduce sea level rise and storm flood risk, including floodproofing buildings and infrastructure, using machinery to create a waterfront flood management system, and implementing other structural and nonstructural shoreline adaptation measures. It is worth noting that although a national adaptation plan for the United States does not currently exist, legislation to create a national adaptation plan, the National Climate Adaptation and Resilience Strategy Act (S.3531/H.R.6461), was introduced earlier this year.

It is much harder than ever to ignore the importance of taking action to adapt to sea level rise. As delegates from countries across the world prepare to meet along Egypt’s coastline, the rising ocean itself is set to serve as a silent but threatening witness to the negotiations.

Author: Molly Brind’Amour