As Primary Voters Start Casting Their Ballots, Climate Change Stands out as a Growing Priority

Environmental issues have not historically been voters’ top priorities, but new research from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication suggests this may be changing. Forty-five percent of registered voters surveyed said that a candidate’s position on climate change will be important in deciding whom they will vote for in the 2020 presidential election. Climate may be even more important within the Democratic primary, since 71 percent of registered Democrats said that a candidate’s stance on climate change would be important in their decision.

In particular, climate is rising as a priority for Democratic voters relative to other issues. Liberals ranked climate change as their third most important voting issue, and as the most important issue when deciding which candidate to vote for in the presidential election. Among moderate to conservative Democrats, climate change was the seventh most important voting issue and fifth most important when selecting a candidate. For registered voters as a whole, climate change was the 11^th most important voting issue, which is a substantial increase in prioritization compared to 2016, when climate was ranked the 19^th issue out of 23 total topics.

 

Caucusgoers and Climate

Democratic voters in Iowa appear to share these national priorities. According to polling from the Des Moines Register, climate change was the second most important issue to likely caucusgoers, after health care. Iowa’s voters have pushed many candidates to make environmental issues a priority. In 2019, Iowans experienced some of the direct impacts of climate change on their state as flooding occurred at historic levels. The intense flooding caused an estimated $2 billion in damages as flooded farms prevented farmers from planting and harvesting crops. The relationship between climate change and agriculture is central to many Iowans’ concerns, since agriculture is a major component of the state’s economy. According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, over 200,000 Iowans are employed as farm operators or farm workers, and in 2017 Iowa was ranked second nationally in the value of agricultural products and livestock sold.

The importance of farming to Iowa’s economy is both an opportunity for the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a source of vulnerability to future climate impacts. Agriculture is a major feature of many candidates’ emission reduction strategies—9 percent of total U.S. emissions in 2017 came from the agricultural sector. As a result of climate change, farmers will be faced with increased frequencies of droughts, floods, severe weather, shorter growing seasons, and soil runoff. To reduce these impacts and improve resilience, the Iowa Farmers Union has started holding meetings with farmers across the state to promote more sustainable agricultural practices. These include planting cover crops to draw down carbon from the atmosphere and prevent runoff, as well as practicing low- or no-till farming to avoid releasing CO₂ by disrupting the soil.

 

Where do the Democratic Candidates Stand?

Now that primary season is underway, each of the leading candidates will likely direct their attention to voters in New Hampshire (voting on February 11), Nevada (February 22), and South Carolina (February 29). And then comes Super Tuesday (March 3). Climate change will almost certainly play a large role in the remainder of the campaign, and all the candidates have released plans detailing what their approach to the climate crisis would be.

All the candidates’ plans include measures to rejoin the Paris Agreement, to improve infrastructure and resilience, to increase research and development in renewable energy, and to prioritize vulnerable communities and workers transitioning into different careers from fossil fuel-based industries. Many candidates are also featuring nature-based solutions in their plans. All major candidates have also signed the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge, a commitment to refuse campaign contributions from coal, oil, and gas corporations.

Based on trends in voters’ prioritization of climate change and the extensive plans released by major Democratic candidates, environmental and energy policy will almost certainly continue to be a major concern as the 2020 presidential election gears up.

 

Author: Abby Neal