Advanced Search
October 20, 2026
This November, delegates from around the world will congregate in Antalya, Türkiye, at the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). COP offers a chance for policymakers, diplomats, companies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and representatives from Indigenous communities and local governments to discuss climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and mechanisms to finance those strategies. COP31 will be hosted jointly by Türkiye and Australia, with Türkiye hosting the conference and presiding over the complimentary Action Agenda, and Australia presiding over the formal negotiations.
Beyond serving as a forum for climate negotiations, COP provides an opportunity to check in on progress towards landmark climate treaties, specifically the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The upcoming COP31 is poised to build upon the commitments and negotiations from COP30 in Belém, Brazil, and other previous COPs. This article will lay out some of those key items.
Perhaps the most anticipated text of the Belém Political Package was the Global Mutirão decision. The decision pushes for collective action to accelerate emission reductions in accordance with the Paris Agreement—namely, its goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) from pre-industrial levels—as well as a tripling of adaptation finance by 2035. It also responds to demand for progress on more controversial topics by stipulating continued discussion at future sessions.
In an effort to close the global climate ambition gap, the Mutirão decision established the Work Programme on Climate Finance, which came into effect in March 2026 and will be operational until November 2027. This program is focused on advancing Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which calls for developed countries to provide financial resources to help developing countries address climate change. The program’s work plan includes facilitated discussions amongst stakeholders about access to climate finance, transparency and streamlining, and capacity building. Its co-chairs—hailing from one developed country and one developing country—are expected to attend climate finance events to speak with relevant negotiators and institutions. The work program held three workshops at the June 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference, and is set to host an additional workshop at COP31. The decision further reaffirmed that measures to curb climate change must not be used as “a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.” This passage is acknowledging criticism of unilateral trade measures like the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which has caused tension due to the economic burden it imposes on trading partners and developing countries.
To address country-level climate ambition and implementation gaps, the Mutirão package created two programs: the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5. The Global Implementation Accelerator is a voluntary program which seeks to boost efforts by countries to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). NDCs are formal commitments by each country to reduce national emissions, while NAPs detail each country’s adaptation needs through a process that is designed to mobilize financial support for the least developed countries. As of October 2026, the COP30 and COP31 presidencies are still collaboratively developing the structure of the Accelerator, as well as soliciting feedback and holding meetings to determine tools and methodology.
Launched in tandem with the Accelerator, the Belém Mission to 1.5 facilitates engagement between parties to the UNFCCC, and welcomes input from NGOs, academics, and other stakeholders to understand how NDCs and NAPs can be more ambitious and effective. The Mission, which is co-led by the presidencies of COP29, 30 and 31, also seeks to determine how international climate investment can be more impactful. The process entailed a consultation event in June 2026 and accepted written inputs until July 2026, both of which will inform a report expected to be released before COP31.
One of the more substantial outcomes of the COP30 negotiations was the long-anticipated adoption of a new just transition mechanism. Built out of three years of dialogues established by the United Arab Emirates Just Transition Work Programme at COP27, this initiative establishes a framework for enhanced international cooperation, knowledge-sharing, technical assistance, and other capacity-building efforts needed to protect and support workers and marginalized groups in the clean energy transition. The final work programme dialogues, held at COP30, emphasized the need for “whole-of-society” climate solutions that reflect the views and needs of Indigenous peoples, women, and other marginalized groups. As of October 2026, the nuts and bolts of the just transition mechanism are still coming together, and a draft decision about operationalization is expected to be shared at COP31.
Heated debates around a formalized push to break away from fossil fuel dependency were rampant throughout COP30. More than 80 parties called for the creation of a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF), as well as one to combat deforestation. Neither of these roadmaps made it into the final text; instead, the Presidency promised that they would be developed through processes outside of the UNFCCC. In response, dissatisfied parties created the Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF).
The first TAFF conference was held in Santa Marta, Colombia, and co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. Representatives from 57 countries gathered in April 2026 to write energy transition roadmaps focused on concrete actions and policies. It was designed to serve as a compliment to COP and help accelerate the transition by detailing what implementation looks like through specific pathways outlined in their report. Tuvalu and Ireland will host the second TAFF conference in the Pacific region in 2027, to continue these negotiations.
One advantage to being separated from the UNFCCC is the potential for accelerated action, since the TAFF process is based on voluntary cooperation rather than consensus agreement. Although the TAFF roadmap will be developed outside of COP negotiations, the COP30 Presidency is presiding over the process, and accepted submissions from national and NGO stakeholders on what a TAFF roadmap may look like through March 31, 2026.
Because of the importance of the Amazon rainforest to Brazil, deforestation was a major concern for COP30 leadership and delegates. However, the Presidency ultimately did not include the creation of a deforestation roadmap in the final package. As with the fossil fuel roadmap, the UNFCCC accepted submissions for what a prospective roadmap may look like.
Although deforestation was not formally addressed in the negotiations, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced the creation of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) during the World Leaders Climate Action Summit. This multilateral fund will pay countries with tropical forests to conserve them, rather than deplete them. A coalition of parties, including the European Union, Norway, Indonesia, and Brazil, collectively committed over $5 billion to the initiative upon its launch. The TFFF is especially critical at a time when tropical forests face record threats from agriculture, such as cattle ranching, soybean farming, and cacao harvesting. Deforestation will be a continued topic of discussion in Antalya, as protecting and restoring forests is a key part of the Rio Synergy Action Agenda item.
In an unexpected development related to Article 6.4, COP30 catalyzed the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), a high-integrity framework for trading carbon credits. Carbon markets allow parties to offset emissions by buying credit for another party to compensate with emission reductions elsewhere. The PACM will be funded for the first three years of operation by its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism. The old crediting mechanism is set to cease operations at the end of 2026, so details about the PACM will likely be addressed at COP31.
COP30 established a new gender action plan, which will be in effect until 2034. Its provisions include a call for feedback and suggestions for improving the inclusion of women in the negotiation process, addressing the unique and disproportionate impacts of climate change on women, and better understanding how to uplift women as “agents of change” in climate action. It also creates programs, workshops, and events to help countries address gender disparities in their climate plans and policies.
COP30 delegates reviewed the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, which supports developing countries most vulnerable to climate change, and received testimony from its board members on the development of a long-term plan for the fund, including a “risk management framework.” The final decision from COP30 noted that the fund needs further contributions and has struggled with fundraising. The fund is expected to begin its first “replenishment process” in 2027, so strategies for mobilizing finances may be on delegates’ minds ahead of COP31.
In September 2026, the U.N. Environment Programme released a report, Limiting Overshoot, which found that global temperature rise will likely exceed 1.5°C in the next few years. The report stressed that mitigating further overshoot beyond that threshold, and returning to below it by the end of the century, must remain top priorities. Decision-makers at COP30 emphasized a continued commitment to the 1.5°C goal, so this report could be a hot topic for those attending COP31.
COP30 accomplished some climate goals while falling short on others. Despite the adoption of a just transition roadmap, many delegates criticized the Mutirão decision for not referencing fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the conference created real movement on furthering strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. A number of steps that COP30 took will be on the table for advancement in Antalya. The COP31 presidencies have already identified some topics that they hope to directly address this year, and the final negotiating agenda could also pick up incomplete discussions from the 2026 Bonn Climate Conference.
COP31 marks the beginning of the second global stocktake, a collective analysis of the world’s progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, which occurs every five years. The first global stocktake concluded in 2023, and its outcome informed the round of NDCs that was due in 2025. Also looming over COP31 is the December 31 deadline for biennial transparency reports (BTR), required by all parties to the Paris Agreement—with the exception of Small Island Developing States and least developed countries, who may submit BTRs at their discretion—as a means to report country-level progress towards NDCs, relevant policies implemented since the last BTR, and any technical assistance needs that the UNFCCC may be able to address.
In January 2026, the Trump Administration announced that the United States will withdraw from the UNFCCC, in addition to 65 other international organizations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This move distinguishes the United States as the only country to leave the framework since it was adopted in 1992. EESI will continue to cover the annual international climate negotiations at COP31 and beyond.
Author: Parthav Easwar
Advancing science-based solutions for a sustainable, resilient, and equitable world
Top-Rated Climate Nonprofit – 4-Star Charity