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February 28, 2013
Extreme weather events in the United States caused more than $60 billion in damages in 2011 – a year that saw record-breaking storms, droughts, and heat waves across the country. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that 2012 damages will exceed those of 2011, but final estimates are not yet available. Damages from Superstorm Sandy alone may top $50 billion. The nation’s uninsured transportation infrastructure often bears a significant share of the losses from extreme weather events.
Sandy, for example, inflicted an estimated $7.5 billion in damages to New York’s transportation infrastructure. At a time when transportation agencies are already faced with deteriorating infrastructure and major budgetary constraints, increased risk from extreme events presents a substantial challenge to local officials and transportation planners. By improving the climate resiliency of infrastructure, governments could reduce long-term costs and limit transportation disruptions. To accomplish this, local planners need better information and decision-making tools to predict local long-range impacts and to build infrastructure to withstand these new risks.
This brief summarizes the May 2012 joint report from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP), Climate Adaptation & Transportation: Identifying Information and Assistance Needs. The report synthesized the conclusions from a two-day workshop in November 2011 funded by NOAA. The workshop brought together transportation planners and climate scientists from around the country to discuss the critical support needs of surface transportation professionals as they prepare for climate change and shifting extreme weather trends. Participants in the November 2011 workshop sought to answer two questions:
Transportation planning has typically been conducted based on historical data – with the underlying assumption that existing climatic conditions will continue into the future. However, climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts on transportation infrastructure and associated systems. Extreme weather events, as well as changing average conditions and seasonal weather patterns, are projected to affect safety, cost-effectiveness, efficiency, and technical feasibility of transportation investment and asset management decisions. These impacts will vary from region to region and may even vary at the local and site scale. Anticipating the consequences of such disruptive changes and planning prudent responses before they become reality will help transportation agencies protect the infrastructure upon which communities, regions, and the national economy depend for the movement of goods and people.
The November 2011 workshop aimed to inform and address actions to increase the adaptive capacity of transportation officials. Transportation planners, transportation officials, project designers, budget managers and others will need specific guidance on how to translate climate change projections into actionable, quantitative decision parameters and criteria. Meanwhile, the weather information community – and, to some degree, the climate science community – are well-versed in providing data and guidance to transportation system managers regarding extreme weather events, and they are pioneering new approaches to weather monitoring that will support enhanced climate-based decision making.
1. Better information on local, non-climate factors is often equally or more important to adaptation decisions than climate science information.
Understanding local conditions and context, including natural local factors, is crucial. Adaptation starts with determining how well critical infrastructure is adapted to current conditions. The interactions among local factors can significantly exacerbate the effects of climate change and extreme weather but need to be considered outside the parameters of the model.
Recommendations
2. Certain climate and weather information products are particularly important to adaptation efforts for transportation. Much of this information can be developed or significantly improved using current climate models.
3. The form in which climate and weather information is communicated is as important as its availability.
Clear guidance is needed on where to look for information and how that information should be used. Engineers and climate scientists do not speak the same language; improved cross-discipline communication is key.
4. Education, in addition to information, is critical to sound decision making and effective use of climate and weather information by the transportation community.
All agencies addressing climate adaptation, including transportation agencies, need to focus on education and “science”—i.e. a coherent understanding of how different knowledge and data fit together. Transportation professionals do not need to become scientists, but they need to be science-literate.
5. Transportation officials need more and better tools for integrating climate and weather information with other multiple factors to make sound decisions.
Tools and guidance need to be able to analyze and plan for various scenarios. These scenarios should incorporate climate/weather variability, local development patterns, population growth, growth by economic sector, and other factors. Guidance should better address how to balance and incorporate community values (priorities, risk tolerance, etc.)
Key Issues for Decision Making
Managing Uncertainties and Risk
6. There are areas where more research and higher-resolution climate and weather information would be very useful for transportation planning, particularly information on rainfall intensity during extreme events and more information about small events.
For example, current projections of extreme events are provided at the 24-hour level, but hydraulic engineers are more interested in events of 6-hour or less duration. Small-scale events can be significant in terms of storm water management. There is a need for ways to relate projected model results (for precipitation) to water flow/runoff, land use and other projected changes.
7. Climate adaptation efforts for transportation need to be addressed in the context of other management, economic, and institutional issues.
Climate adaptation is as much a management and economic issue as it is an engineering one. Urban governments should ask: if you plan it, fund it, build it or do it, how do your decisions affect local resilience to climate impacts?
Economic Analysis Workshop participants noted that maintaining the existing system is challenging even in good economic times. Transportation practitioners will need to assess which climate impacts are most threatening to the local economy and determine the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. They seek guidance on how to best incorporate climate impacts into asset management processes and how to direct funds in the most cost-effective manner. Decision tools and guidance for economic analysis should be enhanced to include:
Engaging the Public Workshop participants noted that it is much easier to prepare for and respond to climate change impacts if the public has a better understanding of the likely threats and effective responses. They noted that it is also critical that adaptation solutions resonate with local values and key concerns, such as quality of life and the economy.
8. Federal agencies should continue to enhance state and local capacity to prepare for severe weather and a changing climate.
Federal agencies are actively engaged in climate change adaptation efforts, with the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force providing regular progress updates. The report provides the following recommendations on federal transportation climate change adaptation efforts:
Research and Analysis
Capacity Building
Policy
Transportation practitioners need tools and methodologies for making decisions with imperfect data and perpetual uncertainty. A significant portion of the data uncertainty has to do with limited information on non-climate factors and the variable nature of climate and weather events in general, more so than the limits of climate science.
The good news is that transportation experts already have much of the relevant experience needed to prepare for climate change impacts through their experience in hazard mitigation, emergency response, flood management, and land-use planning. Thus, focusing on things that are knowable at the local level goes a long way. And, while climate science is complex, it is certainly not beyond useful understanding. It is, therefore, important for transportation practitioners to educate themselves on climate science, and to articulate their unique data and technical assistance needs. Similarly, climate adaptation efforts would be improved by using experiential input from transportation experts. We hope that Climate Adaptation & Transportation: Identifying Information and Assistance Needs is a constructive step in that direction.
Workshop presentations are available at: www.ccap.org/adaptation.html
Summary prepared by Brian Lutenegger
Edited by John-Michael Cross
Top-Rated Climate Nonprofit – 4-Star Charity