Time Running Out for
International Cooperation on Climate
In an op-ed on the BBC's
website, John Ashton, the British foreign secretary's
special representative for climate change, said that
human-induced climate change must be treated as an
immediate threat to national security and prosperity.
Ashton argues that nations must secure a stable climate
whatever the cost, as failure to do so will cost far more.
On diplomacy and building consensus, Ashton wrote,
"You cannot use military force to make everyone else
on the planet reduce their carbon emissions. No weapon
system can halt the advance of a hurricane bearing down on
a city, or stem the rising sea, or stop the glaciers
melting."
Felix Dodds, chairman of the
Stakeholder Forum for Our Common Future and co-editor of
the recent book Human Environmental Security, said
diplomatic failure on climate change may well lead to
conflict. Dodds said, "John Ashton is right in his
analysis, and international discussions are critical to
solving this issue, because the alternative is you do end
up with military solutions.... There is a time window, and
that window is 10 to 15 years - if we don't deal with it
now, the reality is we will have to use military means to
secure water, food, and energy security."
As an example, Ashton wrote,
"China is already planning to divert water from the
south, where it is currently abundant, to the arid but
populous north, in order to maintain economic stability.
But that plan will fail if the Himalayan glaciers that
feed China's southern rivers continue to melt at an
accelerating rate because of a rising temperature."
Ashton concluded, "If we fail to see this threat to
security very soon for what it is and make our
dispositions accordingly, we will end up paying far more
and experiencing more insecurity."
Antarctic Has Warmed Over Past 150 Years
New research by University of
Washington scientists indicates that Antarctica has been
getting gradually warmer for the last 150 years, a trend
not identifiable in the short meteorological records and
masked at the end of the 20th century by large temperature
variations. Since 1975 the Antarctic showed overall
cooling, while the Southern Hemisphere has warmed at a
rate of about 1.4°C per century.
Antarctic ice cores show
average Antarctic temperatures have risen about two-tenths
of a degree Celsius, or about one-third of a degree
Fahrenheit, over the last 150 years. This includes a
recorded temperature decline of nearly 1°C in the 1990s,
which was due to domination of the positive phase in the
Antarctic Oscillation during that time. During the
positive phase, a vortex of wind is tightly focused on the
polar region and prevents warmer air from mixing with the
frigid polar air, which keeps Antarctica colder.
Other research suggests that
ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is keeping the
Antarctic Oscillation in its positive phase for longer
periods. The University of Washington research was
published in the August 30 issue of Geophysical
Research Letters.
800,000 Year-Old Climate Record Shows Rapid Growth
in GHG Concentrations
Evidence from an 800,000-year
Antarctic ice core record shows unprecedented atmospheric
change due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse
gases. The latest study of ice cores drilled from
Antarctica confirms that atmospheric CO2 concentrations
are substantially higher now than at any time in the last
800,000 years.
For most of the past 800,000
years, CO2 concentration had remained between 180 and 300
parts per million (ppm) of air. Today they are at 380 ppm.
The ice cores show that it had taken 1000 years for CO2
concentrations to rise by 30 ppm during natural warming
periods. According to the new measurements, the same level
of increase has occurred in the past 17 years. The ice
cores reach to a depth of 3.2 kilometers of Antarctic ice.
Dr. Eric Wolff of the British
Antarctic Survey (BA) and leader of the science team for
the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA)
presented the findings at the BA Festival of Science in
Norwich. Dr. Wolff said, "Ice cores reveal the
Earth's natural climate rhythm over the last 800,000
years. When carbon dioxide changed there was always an
accompanying climate change. Over the last 200 years human
activity has increased carbon dioxide to well outside the
natural range and we have no analogue for what will happen
next.... It's an experiment we don't know the result
of."
Professor Peter Smith of the
University of Nottingham said, "There is an urgent
need to find innovative technologies to reduce the impact
we are having on our climate. If we are committed to a low
carbon economy the UK needs a vigorous twin track program
of demand reduction and renewable energy technology.
Governments may have only 10 years in which to determine
the destiny of our planet - giving only five years in
which to develop feasibility and design studies."
Methane Release from
Siberian Lakes Larger than Expected
Research published in
September 7 issue of Nature by an international
team of U.S. and Russian scientists indicates that frozen
lakebeds in Siberia are greater sources of methane gas
emissions than previously thought. The methane gas, a
greenhouse gas over 20 times more potent than carbon
dioxide, is emitted in bubbles that rise up through the
lakes. In some cases the rate of release is high enough to
melt through the lakes’ frozen surfaces.
The study's lead author, Dr.
Katey Walter of the University of Alaska Fairbanks's
Institute of Arctic Biology said the methane appears to be
produced from the thawing of permafrost-—what should be
a permanently frozen layer of earth-—due to global
warming. The study finds that lakebed permafrost emissions
are large enough that taking them into account increases
the total estimated level of Arctic methane emissions by
10-63 percent.
Dr. Walter said that there is
as much organic matter buried in the Siberian tundra as is
contained in all of the world's tropical rain forests. The
team determined that the methane being produced beneath
the lakes comes from organic matter that died as long as
42,900 years ago but that is only now decomposing,
presumably due to recent temperature increases.
Walter Oechel of the Global
Change Research Group at California's San Diego State
University said the results are not only significant but
also larger than expected. In addition to increasing
methane production from lakebeds, he says there is also a
risk that global warming might lead to the melting of
methane-containing ice in the permafrost. Dr. Oechel said,
"Those are huge stores of methane.... If those came
out, they would swamp the current warming [that is] due to
carbon dioxide from all sources."
Arizona Sets Goal of Reducing GHG Emissions 50%
below the 2000 levels by 2040
On September 8, Arizona Gov.
Janet Napolitano signed an Executive Order (EO 2006–13)
geared toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
after receiving a report from her Climate Change Advisory
Group (CCAG) on cleaner air. The Executive Order
establishes a statewide goal to reduce Arizona’s future
GHG emissions to the 2000 emissions level by the year
2020, and to 50 percent below the 2000 level by 2040. The
Executive Order also creates a Climate Change Executive
Committee whose task it will be to develop a strategy to
implement the recommendations in Arizona's Climate Action
Plan and to explore ways to meet Gov. Napolitano’s
challenge of reaching the 2000 emissions level even
sooner-–by Arizona’s Centennial in 2012.
Gov. Napolitano said,
“Implementing these recommendations should cut our
demand for energy by increasing energy efficiency, and
improve air quality, all the while saving Arizonans money
through reduced fuel costs and lower electricity bills....
Developing Arizona’s renewable energy sources, such as
solar, biomass, biofuels, wind and geothermal will help us
reach these goals, and at the same time, create jobs.
It’s a win-win for all of us.”
Planned Texas Coal Plants to Draw Opposition
Plans to build 16 or more new
coal-fired power plants over the next six years in Texas
are running into opposition from the state's mayors and
citizens who are concerned about exacerbating emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs). Texas is already first in the
United States for GHG emissions and seventh worldwide,
emitting more GHGs than Canada or the United Kingdom.
As reported by the Dallas
Morning News, if constructed, the new power plants
would emit an estimated 117 million tons of carbon dioxide
(CO2) per year. Jim Marston, Texas director of the
national group Environmental Defense, said that
Dallas-based TXU, which plans to build 11 of the new coal
plants, would account for 78 million tons of the new
emissions--the same amount that would result if TXU gave
each of its 2.4 million retail customers four Cadillac
Escalades.
The coal expansion, which
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is promoting, is starting to draw
opposition beyond organized environmental groups.
Dallas Mayor Laura Miller and Houston Mayor Bill White
announced last week that their cities and 15 others--with
a combined population of about 6.2 million, or nearly
one-third of all Texans--would fight the new coal plants
before state regulators or in court. They said CO2
emissions were a big factor in their decision.
TXU does have support in the
small towns where it would build the plants, and said it
would spend up to $2 billion researching CO2 solutions.
TXU says its carbon research, investment in wind power,
and plans to build six new nuclear plants show a long-term
commitment to cutting its greenhouse gases, though the
nuclear plants would not be replacements for any of its
coal-fired power plants.
Canadians Concerned About Global Warming; Clear
Majority Support Action
A poll of Canadians conducted
in July by McAllister Opinion Research indicates that the
Canadian public is very concerned about climate change,
ranking it only behind air quality as the top
environmental issue.
As reported by Canadian
Press, more than 90 percent of Canadians said climate
change will be a serious problem if not addressed, and 75
percent believe that a "good amount" or a
"great deal" can be done to fight the problem.
The poll found that 77 percent believe Canada should meet
or exceed its Kyoto targets for cutting emissions, a stark
contrast from the position of the current Conservative
Canadian government, which has rejected the Kyoto
Protocol.
Pollster Angus McAllister
said, "Canadians are looking for moral leadership and
they see the center is silent which makes them even more
anxious.... It's like when you're flying in a plane and
there's smoke coming out of the engines and nobody's
saying anything."
In the poll, the most
frequently named environmental issues were air quality (35
per cent) and global warming (20 per cent), with concern
about global warming nearly triple the seven percent
concerned about climate in 2005. Both polls were based on
samples of 1,500 people and are considered accurate within
2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
