Climate Change News – November
10, 2006
Brought to you by the
Environmental and Energy Study Institute
Carol Werner, Executive Director
Kenya
Hosts UN Climate Conference; Climate Change a Serious Threat
On
October 6, the United Nations Climate Change Conference--Nairobi
2006--began with calls for action and a stark warning that
climate change is fast proving to be one of the greatest
challenges in the history of humankind. “Climate change is
rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that
humanity may ever face,” said Kenyan Environment Minister
Kivutha Kibwana, president of the conference.
Warning
that global warming threatened the development goals for
billions of the world’s poorest people, Kibwana said, “We
face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction
will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for
the poorest communities on the continent of Africa.”
In
an October 8 Washington Post editorial UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan said, "Climate change has profound
implications for virtually all aspects of human well-being, from
jobs and health to food security and peace within and among
nations. Yet too often climate change is seen as an
environmental problem when it should be part of the broader
development and economic agenda. Until we acknowledge the
all-encompassing nature of the threat, our response will fall
short."
The
conference--the second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol (COP/MOP 2) held in conjunction with the twelfth
session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change
Convention (COP 12)--runs from November 6-17. This is the first
UN climate summit in sub-Saharan Africa and is expected to draw
around five thousand participants.
UN Report Paints Stark
Picture on Climate and Drought in Developing Countries
The UN Human Development Report
2006, entitled "Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the
Global Water Crisis," says climate change "now poses
what may be an unparalleled threat to human development."
According to BBC, the report says that rich countries
have focused on ways to reduce carbon emissions but have
largely ignored helping poor nations cope with the
consequences. The report calls efforts to help developing
nations adapt to the impacts of climate change "woefully
inadequate."
Lead author Kevin Watkins said
people living in vulnerable conditions were already having to
adapt. Watkins said, "There is a lot of evidence that the
droughts in the Horn of Africa this year are connected to
climate change. This is not an issue for 50 years down the
road, it is an issue for today." Watkins added that
"More than 90 percent of people living in rural
Sub-Saharan Africa are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, so
what happens to rain and moisture content in the soil has very
profound and immediate implications for poverty."
IEA: “Business-as-Usual” Leads to Expensive
and Unsustainable Energy Future
On November 7, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) released the World Energy Outlook 2006
(WEO-2006), which provides a baseline vision of how energy
markets are likely to evolve without new government measures
to alter underlying energy trends, as well as an Alternative
Policy Scenario that reduces energy use ten percent by 2030.
The Alternative Scenario would deliver 16 percent less carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions than the "business as usual"
(baseline) scenario, the same as the current total emissions
from the United States and Canada combined.
At the report's launch in London,
IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil said, "On current
trends, we are on course for a dirty, expensive and
unsustainable energy future.... In response, urgent government
action is required. The key word is urgent.... But it also
shows how new government policies can create an alternative
energy future which is clean, clever and competitive--the
challenge posed to the IEA by the G8 leaders and IEA
ministers." As reported by the Washington Post,
Mandil said governments must promote both energy efficiency
and energy investment, with predictions that they will need to
spend a combined $20 trillion on power, oil and gas production
and related facilities to meet expected demand.
The report’s
“business-as-usual” scenario projects that world oil
demand will reach 116 million barrels per day in 2030, up 38
percent from 84 million barrels in 2005. Global CO2 emissions
are anticipated to reach 40 gigatons of CO2 (10.9 gigatons of
carbon) in 2030, a 55 percent increase over today's level.
While the report says nuclear power could make a "major
contribution to reducing dependence on imported gas and
curbing CO2 emissions," Greenpeace International
disagreed and said, "While it is important that the IEA
has finally recognized the need to drastically change the
global energy supply in light of climate change, it has
offered 'business as usual' solutions, which are not
commensurate with the problems it seeks to solve."
"The Great Warming" Climate Documentary
Opens to Positive Reviews
The documentary film on climate
change entitled "The Great Warming" received a
number of positive reviews on its national opening November 3.
The film travels four continents and encounters a wide
assortment of people--ranging from scientists and professors
to farmers and fishermen to architects and youth
activists--whose everyday lives are increasingly influenced by
the effects of climate change.
The New York Times said,
"Without undermining the urgency of the situation, the
film radiates optimism that the human race can seriously
explore its role in keeping Earth a habitable planet, and has
already begun to do so. As long as the political leaders who
hold the power to implement a larger plan of action remain in
'climate denial' ...The Great Warming... should be required
viewing by all. Future generations’ lives, and maybe even
ours, depend on it."
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer
said the film, "does a solid job of dealing with the
problem but with enough originality that it's not an exact
duplication of the Gore film. And the fact that the film is
being distributed exclusively by Regal Cinemas--which is owned
by a conservative Denver billionaire --is encouraging evidence
that the vital issue is no longer the exclusive domain of the
Democratic left in this country."
The Los Angeles Times
said, "the real star of 'The Great Warming' is the
Rev. Richard Cizik of the National Association of
Evangelicals. Cizik introduces the notion of "creation
care," a biblical brand of eco-activism, saying,
'To harm this world by environmental degradation is an
offense against God.' ....although Cizik and [Matthew] Sleeth
occupy only a small chunk of the film, their presence is
genuinely inspiring.... 'The Great Warming' implicitly
makes the case that, from a God's-eye perspective, there
is nothing that unites us like the health of the planet we
share."
Australians Willing to Pay More to Arrest Climate
Change Amidst Predictions of a Drier Future
According to a poll conducted last
week in Australia, almost two-thirds are unhappy with the
government's response on climate change, and almost the same
percentage is ready to pay more in taxes and for goods and
services, if it eases global warming. Over 90 percent think
that global warming is a problem, and about half of those
polled support utilizing solar power to deal with climate
change. A carbon tax on fossil fuels got the backing of 19
percent, while 17 percent backed nuclear power.
The poll was conducted at a time
when the country is going through its worst drought in a
century. In a drought update released on October 27 by the
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, more
than half of Australia's farmland is now officially classified
as drought-stricken. According to the Bureau, output of three
main winter grain crops of wheat, barley and canola is now
down by over 60 percent as compared to last year.
"....the drought is estimated to reduce economic growth
in Australia in 2006-07 by around 0.7 percentage points from
what would otherwise have been achieved," said the
update.
In another report, Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
predicted that rainfall in parts of eastern Australia may drop
40 percent by 2070, and temperature may rise by 7°C.
Australia's climate is now permanently hotter and drier, and
by 2030, the risk of bushfires will be higher, said the
report. "The CSIRO research paints a frightening picture.
That's why we need a national approach to climate
change," said New South Wales Premier Morris Iemma.
California to Set a GHG Emissions Performance Standard
for Baseload Generation
On October 30, 2006, the
California Energy Commission instituted a proceeding to
establish a greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission performance
standard "for all baseload generation of local
publicly-owned electric utilities at a rate of emissions of
greenhouse gases that is no higher than the rate of emissions
of greenhouse gases for combined-cycle natural gas baseload
generation." The standard will implement Senate Bill
1368. The Commission also is directed to adopt regulations to
enforce the standard with respect to local publicly-owned
electric utilities. The standard is to be established by June
30, 2007.
China's Surface Temperature to Rise Despite Decreasing
Insolation
According to research published in
Geophysical Research Letters on October 31, models
show that China's surface temperature is set to increase by 3°C
during the 21st century. The increase will occur despite a
decrease in insolation (incoming solar radiation) caused by
the scattering nature of atmospheric sulfate aerosols. During
the period 1950-2000, surface temperature in China increased
by 1°C even as surface insolation recorded a significant
decrease.
Scientists from Rutgers University
and NASA used observational data and global climate model
simulations to examine surface temperature, insolation, cloud
cover, surface vapor, air pressure and evaporation. Their
research suggests that both the past and the future warming
are primarily caused by a rise in downward longwave radiation
(radiation directed towards the surface from the atmosphere
itself), which is partly triggered by an increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG). China is expected to
overtake the United States in GHG emissions by 2009--nearly a
decade ahead of previous predictions--as predicted in the
International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2006.
German Study Highlights Solar Energy for Carbon
Reduction
A German study entitled
“Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar
Power” has developed a European electricity generation
scenario to 2050, which can bring down carbon emissions to 25
percent of those in the year 2000, with renewables enjoying 80
percent share in the electricity mix. Annual carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions can decrease to 350 million tons (Mt) in 2050,
instead of rising to 2350 Mt in a “business-as-usual”
mode. For comparison, annual emissions were 1400 Mt in 2000.
According to the study, while electricity supply depended on
resources such as nuclear, coal, gas, oil and hydropower in
2000, by 2050, nuclear can be phased out and reliance on coal
and oil can be reduced as imported solar, wind and hydropower
take over.
The study suggests importing solar
electricity into Europe from the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) by interconnecting the electricity grid. Due to a
higher solar irradiance, the cost of concentrated solar power
is usually lower in MENA than in Europe. "Every year,
each square kilometer of desert receives solar energy
equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil. Multiplying by the
area of deserts world-wide, this is nearly a thousand times
the entire current energy consumption of the world," said
Franz Trieb, one of the study team members. He added, "We
can tap in to this energy by using mirrors to concentrate
sunlight and create heat....to raise steam and drive a
generator in the conventional way. This kind of 'concentrating
solar power' -- which is very different from the better-known
photovoltaic 'solar panels' -- has been producing electricity
successfully in California for nearly 20 years."
The solar imports can meet about
15 percent of the European electricity demand by 2050. The
report says that "starting between 2020 and 2025 with a
transfer of 60 TWh/y (terawatt-hours per year), solar
electricity imports could subsequently be extended to 700 TWh/y
in 2050." If actions begin now, power can become
cheaper than a “business-as-usual” case in about 15 years,
and negative socio-economic impacts of a rise in fossil fuel
prices can be turned around by 2020 when accompanied with
necessary political and legal framework.
Ski Areas Look to Renewable Energy to Reduce Carbon
Footprint
As the impact of climate change on
the ski industry becomes more apparent, more ski resorts are
looking to reduce their carbon emissions by switching to
renewable energy and by making infrastructure changes. In the
United States, at least 45 resorts in 14 states are using
renewable energy for some of their operations. Sixteen of
these are getting 100 percent of their energy from renewable
sources, including wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and
hydropower. Breckenridge, CO, has added new gondolas to take
people from town to the mountain, reducing bus trips and
associated emissions.
EESI
Briefings
November 13, 2006
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
The Environmental and Energy
Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a Congressional briefing
highlighting the findings of the UK’s just-released 700 page
“Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” which
addresses the costs of inaction on climate change versus the
costs of action. The Review, under the aegis of the UK Prime
Minister and Chancellor, was commissioned by the Chancellor in
July last year. The briefing will be held Monday, November 13,
from 3:00-4:00 p.m. in room 2360 of the Rayburn House Office
Building. This briefing is open to the public and no
reservations are required. For more information, please
contact Fred Beck at fbeck@eesi.org
or 202.662.1892, or click on
the following link: EESI
DVD’s
Available: Copies of DVD's
are available of EESI's recent climate
briefings: "Agriculture
and Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities," May
24, 2005; "What
Does Climate Change Mean for the Arctic? How is Alaska Being
Affected?,"
March 15, 2005; "Perspectives
on Climate Change: Business Initiatives to Reduce Greenhouse
Gas Emissions," November
18, 2004; “State
and Local Government Climate Change Efforts,” September
28, 2004; “Climate
Change Post 2100,” September 21, 2004; “Abrupt
Climate Change,” September 15, 2004; and
“Discussing Climate Change: A Multi-faceted View
of the Climate Stewardship Act,” June 3, 2004.
The discs are $20
ea. (incl. shipping/handling) plus tax 5.75%
(DC residents only). Click on the following link to
order a DVD: EESI
Climate Change DVD's
Events
November 15, 2006
Carbon Disclosure, Socially
Responsible Investing, and Renewable Energy
The American Council On Renewable
Energy in collaboration with the American Bar Association's
(ABA) Renewable Energy Resources Committee will host a
teleconference with a panel of experts who will discuss carbon
disclosure laws, private and public equity flow into
renewables, the role that organized shareholders and sources
of investment capital for renewables. The event takes place on
Wednesday, November 15 from 12:00-1:30 pm EDT. There is
a $20 charge for this event. Click on the following link
for more information: ABA
This
EESI publication is a free, weekly electronic
newsletter intended to inform interested parties,
particularly the policymaker community, of the
latest climate change-related news. Permission
for reproduction of this newsletter is granted
provided that EESI is properly acknowledged as the
source. Past
issues are archived on our website,
www.eesi.org, under "Publications."
Please click here
to subscribe to this newsletter and other EESI
publications. To discontinue
receiving this newsletter, please notify
Fredric Beck at fbeck@eesi.org or
202-662-1892.
The Environmental and Energy Study Institute is a
non-profit organization established in 1984 by a bipartisan,
bicameral group of members of Congress to provide timely
information on energy and environmental policy issues to
policymakers and stakeholders and develop innovative policy
solutions that set us on a cleaner, more secure and
sustainable energy path.
This newsletter and EESI's other
valuable work in energy, climate change, agriculture,
transportation and smart growth are made possible through
financial support from people like you. Please donate
now. Your tax-deductible contribution
will help EESI develop innovative policy solutions for a
cleaner, safer, healthier world. EIN: 52-1268030.
For more information, visit www.eesi.org
or contact Ruth Lampi at rlampi@eesi.org or
202-662-1887.
|
