Climate Change News
– October
6,
2006
Brought to you by the
Environmental and Energy Study Institute
Carol Werner, Executive Director
Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Continues to Shrink
Despite cool temperatures in
August, the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic was below
normal for the fifth year in a row. The pattern of sharply
decreasing Arctic sea ice raises further concern that the
Arctic is responding to greenhouse warming. National Snow
and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Senior Research Scientist Mark
Serreze said, “If fairly cool and stormy conditions
hadn’t appeared in August, slowing the rate of summer ice
loss, I feel certain that 2006 would have surpassed last
year’s record low for September sea ice.”
On September 14, the day the
melting season came to a close—known as the sea ice
minimum—sea ice covered 2.2 million square miles of the
Arctic, the fourth lowest of the twenty-nine-year satellite
record for a single day. NSIDC research scientists Julienne
Strove said, "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean will have
no ice in September by the year 2060." Arctic sea ice
acts like an insulating lid on the northernmost ocean,
reflecting sunlight and preventing the water from absorbing
heat and warming up. As the ice melts, the water warms,
which melts more ice. This phenomena is known as a positive
feedback.
Tropical Forests May Contribute to Carbon Emissions
as Earth Warms
For years, Central and South
American forests have been regarded as carbon sinks that
absorb and store atmospheric carbon. Since 1996, scientists
have been studying links between carbon, water and nutrient
cycles in old-growth rain forests in Costa Rica in an effort
known as the Ciclos Project. Their research is
indicating that these forests may be involved in climate
change as carbon sources, rather than sinks, by releasing
more and more carbon as environmental conditions shift. They
believe relatively minor weather variations—particularly
increases in temperature—could turn the tropical forests
into major emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2).
As reported by the San Diego
Union-Tribune, the reason is that as the world
continues to warm, as predicted by climate models, tropical
rain forests are expected to die off, perhaps so much that
they turn into grasslands with scattered trees. As trees
die, they release more CO2 into the atmosphere, both through
decomposition and fires that are more prevalent in warm and
dry conditions. Dr. Terry McGlynn of the University of San
Diego said, "With the climate changes that we expect
... we can't bank on the forest to suck up carbon.... If
anything, we can imagine that this forest ... is going to
start shedding a bunch of carbon as the forest gets
stressed."
Researchers are also looking at
the effects of phosphorus and nitrogen in the soil on CO2
emissions. In some cases, increased nutrients boosted
activity among microorganisms that break down leaves and
limbs that fall to the forest floor, increasing the rate of
CO2 release.
Potential for Extensive and Extreme Drought by 2100
According to a study from the UK
Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research, drought brought on by climate change may affect
half the land surface of the Earth in the coming century. In
addition, extreme drought may affect about a third of the
land surface area by the end of the century. Under extreme
drought conditions, agriculture is nearly impossible.
As reported by the Independent,
the findings—released at the Climate Clinic side event at
the Conservative Party conference in Bournemouth—drew
astonished and dismayed reactions from aid agencies and
development specialists, who fear that the poor of
developing countries will be worst hit. Andrew Pendleton of
Christian Aid said, "This is genuinely terrifying....
It is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will
mean migration off the land at levels we have not seen
before, and at levels poor countries cannot cope with."
Senior Met Office scientists
stressed the study contains uncertainties: there is only one
climate model involved, one future scenario for emissions of
greenhouse gases (a moderate-to-high one) and one drought
index. Nevertheless, the result is "significant",
according to Vicky Pope, the head of the Hadley Centre's
climate program. The research is to be published in the Journal
of Hydrometeorology this month.
Regional Climate Modeling Suggests Higher
Temperatures for the Northeast
Annual average temperatures in
New England and the Northeast have already warmed about 2°F
since 1970. Now, new climate modeling provides detailed
projections of the effects of climate change on the
Northeast. The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA),
a scientific report by the Union of Concerned Scientists
(UCS) and a team of 14 scientists from US universities,
finds that summers in Boston could feel like July in South
Carolina by the end of the century if global warming is
allowed to continue unchecked. The scientists used three
types of global climate models to come up with the Northeast
predictions. The three models' results closely matched
actual historical data over the past 100 years, giving the
scientists confidence in the models to make predictions.
Under different scenarios
modeled by the scientists, temperatures in the Northeast
could rise from 3.5-12.5°F by 2100. 100°F days would
become more common, snow cover would decline 25-50% across
the region, the growing season would become longer and rainy
days will have more rain. Katharine Hayhoe, a lead author of
the report and a climate scientist at Texas Tech University,
said "The bottom line is the models do quite
well." If anything, Hayhoe said, the models tended to
underestimate the observed changes in the Northeast.
Cameron Wake, one of the lead
authors of the report and a research associate professor at
the University of New Hampshire's Climate Change Research
Center, said "The very notion of the Northeast as we
know it is at stake.... The near-term emissions choices we
make in the Northeast and throughout the world will help
determine the climate and quality of life our...
grandchildren experience." The scientists called for
the Northeast states, which together are the seventh-largest
emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) when ranked among the
nations of the world, to make more use of renewable energy
sources such as wind, drive fewer gas-guzzling vehicles, and
make buildings more energy-efficient.
Power Producer: Addressing Carbon Emissions Critical
for Industry
On September 26, David Crane,
CEO of NRG Energy—an independent power producer, addressed
the Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference in New
York on notable trends and developments in 2006. The ninth
of ten trends Crane addressed was entitled “Carbon: The
800 Pound Gorilla.” Crane began by saying, “I firmly
believe that when we talk about carbon and its impact on
global warming, we are not talking about just another
business issue. We are talking about the type of business
issue that comes along, perhaps only once in a century. That
is an issue like workers’ safety at the beginning of the
20th century, which transcends bottom line impact.”
On dealing with carbon in the
power industry, Crane said, “While some forward thinking
power industry executives have taken a stand on carbon, the
broader utility industry view as represented by the official
position of the utility trade association can best be
described as--see how this works: ‘See no carbon, hear no
carbon, and speak no carbon.’ More specifically for those
of you who do not know the official utility industry view is
that carbon restraints should be entirely voluntary. A
carbon position based on voluntary restraints to me is
unwise and ultimately self-defeating because it’s
increasingly out of touch with the rapidly hardening
position of main stream America on the issues of carbon
emissions and global warming and what will be even more
infuriating to the public is the blazing cynicism of the
power industry’s position -- advocating reliance solely on
voluntary restraints at a time when the American power
industry itself is proposing to construct nearly 100
gigawatts of new coal-fired generation.”
In closing, Crane said, “My
final point on carbon for today is that it has been
suggested to me in some Investor Meetings that there may be
a carbon windfall for NRG embedded in favorable allocations,
et cetera. I believe that people who really believe that the
power industry is in line for a carbon windfall severely
underestimate the intelligence and objectives of America’s
environmental regulators. Having said that, you want to
understand that it’s not too difficult for me to say that
we a[t] NRG hereby renounce any such windfall. We don’t
want it. We don’t expect to be rewarded economically for
emitting carbon, but in the carbon regimes of the future we
do expect to be rewarded economically either directly or
indirectly for displacing baseload coal, for generating zero
emissions wind, for separating sequestration ready CO2
through IGCC and for bringing one or more carbon capture
technologies to commercial realizations.”
Click on the following link for
the webcast and presentation: NRG
Energy
Senators Kerry and Snowe Introduce Bipartisan
Climate Change Proposal
On September 29, Senators John
Kerry (D-MA) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) introduced a bill to
amend the Clean Air Act to establish a mandatory
economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cap-and-trade
program. The Global Warming Reduction Act of 2006
(S. 4039) requires that the United States freeze GHG
emissions in 2010 and then calls for a gradual reduction
each year to 65 percent below 2000 emissions levels by 2050.
The bill requires that passenger vehicles reduce their GHG
emissions, includes measures to advance technology and
reduce emissions through clean, renewable energy and energy
efficiency in the transportation, industrial and residential
sectors and requires the united States to derive 20 percent
of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. The
bill includes credits for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
(PHEVs).
Sen. Kerry said, “For years
now on climate change, Washington keeps postponing the
reckoning until the day after tomorrow. The world is
changing and now the reckoning is real. Scientists are now
warning that we are moving closer to several ‘tipping
points’ that within a decade could make it impossible to
avoid irreversible damage to the planet. Each passing day
brings yet more evidence that we are facing a climate crisis
that demands immediate action. Senator Snowe and I are
working to bridge the ideological divide to develop this
bipartisan proposal and offer a roadmap for the
future."
Sen. Snowe said, "As a
world leader we must reengage in international climate
negotiations, and demonstrate that we are serious about
stopping this threat now rather than abrogate our
responsibility to the next generation of Americans. The most
costly action would be inaction.”
The bill has been referred to the Committee on
Finance.
Click on the following link for
the news story: Sen.
Kerry
Staples Making Progress on GHG Reductions
In an interview with Green Power
Energy Conferences, Mark Buckley, Vice President of
Environmental Affairs for Staples, addressed his companies'
response to climate change. Buckly said, "At Staples
we’ve learned that understanding and quantifying our
carbon impact through credible data allows us to set
tangible internal goals for our organization. Currently, we
are tracking our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using the
U.S. EPA’s Climate Leaders Protocol, which is primarily
based on the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Corporate Standard...
Once a company can identify their direct and indirect carbon
impact they can develop an integrated carbon mitigation
strategy."
Asked how Staples is measuring
its effectiveness in reaching its climate goals,
Buckley said, "Staples has committed to reduce our
greenhouse gas emissions by 7 percent on an absolute basis
from 2001 to 2010. At present, we are tracking toward
meeting and exceeding that goal following an integrated
approach focused on energy conservation, green building
design, renewable energy procurement, on-site renewable
projects, alternative fuels and carbon sequestration. As of
2005, we had reduced our net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
by nearly 5 percent versus 2001."
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