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EIA: Carbon Emissions to Grow 39 Percent by 2030 If Left Unchecked On May 27, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent agency in the Department of Energy, released its International Energy Outlook 2009, an annual report that projects energy trends through 2030. The report concluded that with no further policies to reduce CO2 emissions, total global emissions will reach 40.4 billion metric tons by 2030, up from 29 billion metric tons in 2006, an increase of 39 percent. The jump in emissions is attributed to a projected 44 percent increase in energy demand by 2030, much of it produced from fossil fuels. Renewable energy is expected to grow the fastest, though fossil fuels will continue to be the dominant energy supply to meet the high demand for energy, increasingly coming from developing nations such as China and India. “With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most of (the developing) economies, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing . . . nations,” the report said. In addition, 94 percent of the increase in industrial energy use between now and 2030 is expected to take place in developing countries, with Brazil, Russia, India and China expected to account for two-thirds of that growth. For additional information see:
Global CEOs Support Cutting Carbon Emissions, Cap and Trade Program On May 26, over 500 business leaders at the World Business Summit on Climate Change in Copenhagen issued a statement calling for clarity on carbon emission reduction targets. The group supported a cap and trade program over a carbon tax and sees the need for “immediate and substantial” emission cuts by 2020, followed by cuts of “at least half of 1990 levels by 2050.” Failure to form a global agreement with broad consensus could lead to “green protectionism,” where industries in countries with tough rules would lose out to rivals in countries with less strict policies. The statement was delivered to Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer. “We have to be honest,” Loekke Rasmussen responded. “Changing the current economy into a green economy will involve challenges, but also possibilities.”
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Nobel Laureates, Including Secretary Chu, Issue Dire Climate Warning On May 28, a group of 20 Nobel Laureates signed a memorandum declaring that world carbon emissions must start to decline in the next six years in order to keep the global temperature rise at or below 2°C. The group, which included U.S. Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu, met at the St. James's Palace Nobel Laureate Symposium, where they called for a global reduction in carbon emissions of at least 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The memo recommended placing a price on carbon emissions, rapid investments in renewable energy and emergency funding to stop deforestation. “The St. James’s Palace memorandum calls for a global deal on climate change that matches the scale and urgency of the human, ecological and economic crises facing the world today,” the memo said. While at the symposium, Chu discussed the prospect of the United States agreeing to carbon emission targets even if China does not. “Using China as a reason not to act is no longer what we want to go forward with,” he said. “If the United States does act, one hopes that in several years China will follow.” Chu also noted that actions taken to reduce emissions will ultimately affect global temperatures more than targets agreed to at a climate change conference. “There’s perhaps an over-obsession on these percentages,” Chu said. “I’m hopeful we can deliver more than we promise. I always like to be in a position to over-deliver and I do have great faith in the innovation machinery of the United States.” For additional information see:
Pelosi Visits China to Discuss Climate Change On May 24, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) spoke about the need for cooperation between the United States and China on climate change issues while on a visit to China. “This climate change crisis is a game changer in U.S.-China relations,” Pelosi said in a speech at a clean energy forum. “It is an opportunity that we cannot miss.” The meetings were held as nations prepare for the upcoming United Nations Framework Convention on Climate in Copenhagen in December to finalize negotiatons on a greenhouse gas emissions treaty to follow the Kyoto Protocol. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) also traveled to China this week to discuss climate change issues and said he believes that success in Copenhagen later this year will depend on what the United States and China decide in the next few weeks. “If two countries – powerful economies like China and the United States – are creating about 50 percent of all the world's emissions, obviously what these two countries decide to do will have a profound impact on the rest of the world,” he said. For additional information see:
Stern: United States Will Not Speed Up Emission Cuts On May 24, Todd Stern, the U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, declared that the United States will not increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts, despite pressure from countries such as China and France. President Obama has proposed a 14 percent emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2020, and an 80 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2050. China has called for rich nations like the United States to reduce GHG emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. Stern said that cuts of this magnitude are “not realistic.” “We completely agree it is vital that developed countries get a path that is ambitious and consistent with what science is telling us to do,” Stern said. “But perfect is the enemy of good – you can insist on that, say you really need to have it, and you can end up with nothing.” Stern also noted the need to have cooperation between the United States and China. “It is extremely important that the United States and China be working together – and be seen working together,” he said. “That is absolutely pivotal for Copenhagen.” For additional information see:
Climate Change Hitting Poor Hardest in the United States On May 29, researchers at the University of California released a report that found that the effects of climate change are hitting the poor in the United States disproportionately harder than others. “Climate change does not affect everyone equally in the United States,” said Rachel Morello-Frosch, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley and lead author of the report “The Climate Gap.” “People of color and the poor will be hurt the most – unless elected officials and other policymakers intervene.” The report highlights how extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods already impact the poor disproportionately and are expected to increase in their frequency and intensity in coming decades. Minorities and the poor are less likely to have access to air conditioners and other means to prevent health effects of weather extremes. In addition, households in the lowest income bracket spend twice the proportion of their income on electricity as those in the highest income bracket. The report concluded, “Any policy that increases the cost of energy will hurt the poor the most.” Researchers recommend that policymakers consider environmental justice when discussing ways to address climate change. “As America takes steps to prevent climate change, closing the climate gap must also be a top priority,” said Manuel Pastor, a co-author and director of the Program for Environmental and Regional Equity at the University of Southern California's Center for Sustainable Cities. For additional information see:
Ontario Unveils Cap-and-Trade Legislation On May 27, the province of Ontario, Canada, introduced legislation to implement a cap-and-trade program as Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty expressed frustration with the pace of cap-and-trade negotiations in Washington and Ottawa. “The reason that we are going to move ahead together with Quebec is because we can't wait for Washington or Ottawa to move ahead,” McGuinty said. If the legislation is passed, it is expected to help the province meet climate change commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 6 percent below 1990 levels by 2014 and 15 percent by 2020. Ontario’s legislation does not mention specific emission targets, but these may be set by future regulations. The province is hoping for a cap-and-trade scheme that will eventually encompass all of North America. In the meantime, Ontario and other provinces will continue to pursue provincial and regional climate initiatives. “Our government is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and working with our industries as they transition to the new green economy,” said John Gerretsen, Ontario's environment minister. For additional information see:
Permafrost Melt Poses Long-term Threat Scientists estimate that the permafrost holds twice as much carbon than is currently in the atmosphere. Most of the five million square miles of permafrost in the world is still frozen, but permafrost thaw is self-reinforcing and could be impossible to stop once it begins, Schuur says. “If we address our own emissions either by reducing deforestation or controlling emissions from fossil fuels, that's the key to minimizing the changes in the permafrost carbon pool.” For additional information see:
Spring Agricultural Fires Have Large Impact on Melting Arctic On May 27, the Clean Air Task Force in Boston released a report indicating that black carbon (soot) and other short-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) like ozone and methane from agricultural fires speed up Arctic melting. The report, entitled “Agricultural Fires and Arctic Climate Change,” was released ahead of a meeting at the University of New Hampshire where scientists will discuss key findings from a two year study of short-lived air borne pollutants and how they affect the Arctic. The study, called POLARCAT, found that black carbon originating from forest and agricultural fires in northern nations increases Arctic air temperature and solar absorption, leading to increased melting of Arctic ice and snow. While scientists say that the main cause of climate change is increasing concentrations of long-lived CO2, the Arctic is particularly vulnerable to short-lived GHGs. “Targeting these emissions offers a supplemental and parallel strategy to carbon dioxide reductions, with the advantage of a much faster temperature response, and the benefit of health risk reductions,” says Ellen Baum, a senior scientist at the Clean Air Task Force. “In addition, we have the know-how to control these pollutants today.” For additional information see:
Report Claims Tar Sands As a Climate Threat and As a Security Promise Are Exaggerated Regarding emissions from oil sands production, the report stated that although Canada’s total emissions will increase dramatically, the overall increase in emissions would account for less than 0.1 percent of global CO2 emissions. The report recommended that policymakers in the United States and Canada work together to create a cap-and-trade program, which will facilitate similar carbon prices in the two countries. A carbon price of $20 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (about what prices have averaged in the European Union market) would add only $2.21 per barrel to production costs, according to the Council on Foreign Relations study. Dr. Levi also recommended providing sufficient allocation of permits to oil sands producers and not implementing any low carbon fuel standard which discriminates between conventional and unconventional fossil fuel production, so as not to initially discourage increased oil sands production. For additional information see:
Amazon Hit by Climate Chaos of Floods, Drought On May 25, climate scientists voiced concern that dramatic weather events affecting Brazil may be related to climate change. Due to lack of historical data, the exact effects of climate change are difficult to measure, but scientists indicate that it appears to be a factor in the extreme droughts and flooding plaguing Brazil. Brazilians in the Amazon basin have had to add extra stilts to their houses to avoid being washed away by floods while Brazilians in the southern part of the country have watched crops wither from drought and in some cases have had to flee from encroaching sand dunes. Flooding in the Amazon basin is due to rains which usually end in March, but which continued this year through May. Climatologist Carlos Nobre with Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research warned that “these types of record-breaking climate events will become more and more frequent in the near future. . . . It’s not for the next generation.” These extreme weather events have had a variety of severe impacts on local populations living in the world’s largest rain forest. An estimated 44 people have died as a result of flooding, while hundreds of thousands are homeless and lacking food. The flooding has affected the economy by closing rails used for export for iron ore. Scientists said that floods also could change animal habitation patterns by forcing animals to move closer to human residential areas. In addition to causing crop losses, scientists indicated that the severe droughts may contribute to forest fires. For additional information see:
Scientists Consider Species Relocation Due to Climate Change Effects On May 25, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported that climate change is causing some scientists to consider managed relocation of animals and other species in order to prevent extinctions. This would involve manually moving species into a habitat which they did not previously occupy in order to escape the effects of increasing temperatures and changing weather patterns. While some scientists are now considering managed relocation to be a viable option, there are still others who are concerned about the risks of introducing species into new habitats, including overpopulation and local species extinction. Jessica Hellman, a conservation biologist from the University of Notre Dame and lead author of the report, pointed out that man made changes to the environment may cause managed relocation to become reality for endangered species. “We have previously been able to say, ‘let nature run its course.’” Hellman said. “But because humans have already changed the world, there is no letting nature run its course anymore.” A group of U.S. and international researchers, including Hellman, developed a modeling tool to help predict the risks, trade-offs and costs of relocation. The tool produced a score for the relocation based on several criteria, including the likelihood of success for a particular project, potential harm to receiving ecosystems, relocation costs, potential Endangered Species Act violations and the cultural importance of the species. The scientists hope that the tool will remove some of the uncertainty about how a species will impact its new environment. “The tool takes advantage of the fact that, although science can't tell us exactly what will happen in the future, it can tell us how likely a favorable result is--useful information for decision-makers,” says National Science Foundation Program Director Nancy Huntly. For additional information see:
Other Headlines Dust Storms Speed Snowmelt in the West Yosemite's Giant Trees’ Disappearance Possibly Due to Climate Change
Events June 2, 2009 Heating and Cooling with Sustainable Biomass Energy The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing to examine the promising potential of sustainable biomass to meet a much greater portion of the nation’s heating and cooling needs while also addressing climate, energy, and economic needs. Panelists will discuss the challenges and opportunities in federal policy to advance the development of biomass and other renewable thermal energy sources (e.g. geothermal and solar thermal). The briefing will take place Tuesday, June 2, from 9:30 – 11:00 a.m. in 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required. For more information, contact Ned Stowe at (202) 662-1885 or nstowe [at] eesi.org. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and Transportation for America (T4A) invite you to a briefing to discuss how the next transportation authorization bill can help create safer streets and more livable communities. This briefing will explore how complete streets policies are developed and implemented, their benefits and how they can be incorporated into federal legislation. This briefing will take place Friday, June 5, from 10:00 – 11:30 a.m. in B318 Rayburn House Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required. For more information, contact Jan Mueller at (202) 662-1883 or jmueller [at] eesi.org.
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Amy Sauer This EESI publication is a free, weekly electronic newsletter intended to inform interested parties, particularly the policymaker community, of the latest climate change-related news. Permission for reproduction of this newsletter is granted provided that EESI is properly acknowledged as the source. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute is a non-profit organization established in 1984 by a bipartisan, bicameral group of members of Congress to provide timely information on energy and environmental policy issues to policymakers and stakeholders and develop innovative policy solutions that set us on a cleaner, more secure and sustainable energy path.
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