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Several Key Reports Released by US Climate Change Science Program On January 16, several federal agencies released final reports commissioned by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). CCSP’s Strategic Plan called for the creation of 21 synthesis and assessment reports to guide research activities sponsored or conducted by the federal government. The four reports released on January 16 represent some of the final components of CCSP’s plan and were led by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), US Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The report led by the EPA titled Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, focused on the impacts of sea level rise on the coast, coastal communities, and the habitats and species that depend on them. The effects of sea level rise include submerging low-lying lands, eroding beaches, converting wetlands to open water, intensifying coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers. The report noted that rates of erosion in the mid-Atlantic region, which contains many of the nation’s most vulnerable wetland areas, already reached about one foot over the course of the past 100 years. Looking ahead, the report notes that, “It is likely that most wetlands will not survive” the additional potential two-foot sea level rise by 2100 that is projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For additional information see: In the report led by the USGS titled Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Altitudes, researchers reported that temperature change in the Arctic is happening at a greater rate than other places in the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to continue in the future. The result of this additional warming includes glacier and ice-sheet melting, sea-ice retreat, coastal erosion and sea level rise. “This report provides the first comprehensive analysis of the real data we have on past climate conditions in the Arctic, with measurements from ice cores, sediments and other Earth materials that record temperature and other conditions,” said USGS Director Mark Myers. For additional information see: A report led by USGS titled Changes in Climate May Trigger Abrupt Ecosystem Responses looked at how slight changes in climate could result in crossing so-called “ecological thresholds,” at which point large, persistent and potentially irreversible changes could take place. The ecological responses include insect outbreaks, wildfire, and forest dieback, all of which could affect people as well as ecosystems and their plants and animals. “One of our biggest concerns is that once an ecological threshold is crossed, the ecosystem in question will most likely not return to its previous state,” said USGS Associate Director for Biology Susan Haseltine. “The existence of thresholds should be a key concern of scientists and natural resource managers.” For additional information see: NASA released Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts, the report which concluded that scientists need a better understanding of how aerosols, suspended solid or liquid particles in the air that often are visible as dust, smoke and haze in the atmosphere, affect the climate. Reducing uncertainties about aerosol impacts will be an important factor in predicting future climate scenarios. “The influence of aerosols on climate is not yet adequately taken into account in our computer predictions of climate,” said Mian Chin, lead author from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. “An improved representation of aerosols in climate models is essential to more accurately predict the climate changes.” The report notes that the United States faces a challenge in maintaining and enhancing its existing aerosol monitoring capability from space via satellites, many of which are reaching or exceeding their design lives. For additional information see:
Obama Promises Action on Climate Change in Inaugural Address
For additional information see:
Survey Shows Scientists Agree Human-Induced Global Warming Is Real On January 19, the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) released findings from a poll that showed a group of 3146 earth scientists surveyed around the world overwhelmingly agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising, and that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.” The poll was taken in late 2008 by UIC associate professor Peter Doran and former graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman and will soon be published in Eos, Translation, American Geophysical Union. Two key questions were used in the poll to decipher the experts’ interpretation of human-induced climate change: “Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures?” Doran noted that about 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent agreed with the second. He also noted that climatologists were nearly unanimous in their agreement with the connection between human activity and global warming, while geologists and meteorologists reflected the greatest doubt, with 47 and 64 percent, respectively, seeing a link to human involvement. Doran and Zimmerman concluded, “[T]he debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.” For additional information see:
California Renews Waiver Request for Auto Emissions On January 22, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger sent a letter to President Obama requesting that California and other states be given the right to set CO2 emission standards for cars in their respective territories. An additional letter was also sent from Mary Nichols, Chair of California’s Air Resources Board (CARB), to Lisa Jackson, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) newly-appointed administrator. California initially attempted to obtain a waiver in 2005 under the Clean Air Act that required automakers to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 30 percent for their new cars and trucks by 2016. Since that time, 13 other states have passed similar laws with three more considering California's standards. In 2007, the EPA rejected this waiver on the grounds that only the federal government could impose GHG emission standards for cars. California is now attempting to overturn that initial ruling by pleading their case with the new administration. Regarding the waiver, Jackson testified on January 14 before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that “I will review the waiver decision, if I'm confirmed, very, very aggressively very soon after confirmation. I will let science be the guide in making the decision and the rule of law.” For additional information see:
Hansen Says Obama Has Four Years to Tackle Climate Change On January 18, James Hansen spoke with British newspaper The Guardian and voiced his concern for immediate action needed by President Obama on the issue of climate change. Hansen, Director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been warning Congress and the public about the effects CO2 emissions has on climate since at least 1988, and his concerns rest in large part on the melting ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica, which will lower the earth’s ability to reflect heat radiation and expose melting tundra which in turn will release its own CO2 and methane. Hansen said he believes this multiplier effect must be checked sooner than later, and that current global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction schemes such as “cap-and-trade,” are insufficient. Instead, Hansen says these systems must be “scrapped,” and a carbon tax, led by the United States, should be instituted immediately. Hansen told The Guardian, “We cannot now afford to put off change any longer. We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead.” For additional information see:
Warming in Antarctica Looks Certain On January 22, the journal Nature published a study which found that between the years 1957 and 2006, temperatures across Antarctica rose an average of 0.2°F per decade. Lead author Eric J. Steig at the University of Washington stated that this temperature increase was “very comparable to the global average.” Debate has taken place in recent years over whether climate change has been taking place in Antarctica. This study differs from past reports in that it used satellite readings to estimate temperatures for Antarctic regions that were formerly inaccessible. The report stated that the result was an observation that “significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported.” Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences at Princeton responded to the study, “Obviously the situation is complex, resulting from a combination of man-made factors and natural variability. But the idea of a long-term cooling is pretty clearly debunked.” For additional information see:
Global Warming Drops in Concern, Pew Poll Shows On January 22, the Pew Research Center released results of a poll which showed a decline in concern for the environment and global warming among US citizens in 2009. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted between January 7-11 among 1503 adults in the United States, found that the issue of global warming was ranked last out of 20 as a “top priority” for 2009. The economy was ranked as the top priority, followed by jobs and terrorism; energy was ranked sixth. Social scientists noted that environmental concerns are often the first to fall off the table when any more immediate threat surfaces. For additional information see:
Many Glaciers Will Disappear by Mid-Century, Expert Warns On January 19, the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) released findings that the average loss of thickness for glaciers was measured at 24 inches in 2007. Based upon these findings, Dr. Michael Zemp of WGMS said, “[I]f temperatures continue to rise, glaciers in certain regions where there is a warmer climate and low altitudes could disappear completely by the middle of the century.” The WGMS, supported by the United Nations (UN) and other scientific bodies, has continuously observed about 100 glaciers since 1980. The most recent data collection in 2007 noted that the glaciers experienced the “third biggest fall on record.” The reduction in glacial mass was only about half that observed in 2006, which was the biggest loss of ice in a single year since those records began, and based on historic reconstruction, it was thought to be the worst year for 5000 years. Some potential consequences of this loss of glaciers include increased risk of avalanches and rock slides; loss of drinking water; challenges for tourism; and lost resources for hydroelectric plants. Dr. Zemp concluded, “Glaciers are independent proof the climate is changing, so even if you do not believe measurements on temperature rise or rainfall, you can see the glaciers are retreating from their moraines around the globe.” For additional information see:
Seasons Arriving Two Days Earlier, Study Finds On January 22, the journal Nature published a study conducted by UC Berkeley and Harvard University researchers which found that a rise in surface temperatures has shifted seasons in the last half-century to arrive earlier by 1.7 days. The study looked at global, non-tropical land temperatures from 1850 to 2007 to determine this finding. In the initial 100-year period (1850-1950), land temperatures showed a simple pattern of variability, while the period between 1954 and 2007 showed seasonal high and low temperatures peaking nearly two days earlier. The researchers attribute part of this shift to a change in a particular pattern of winds, known as the Northern Annual Mode, “although the land phase shift is significantly larger than that predicted by trends in the Northern Annular Mode alone,” states the report. Lead author Alexander Stine of UC Berkeley said, “The pattern that we see suggests there's a relationship between global warming and the shifting of the seasons.” Inez Fung, co-director of Berkeley Institute of the Environment added, “We're saying that, on top of the long-term trend of warmer summer and winter highs, peak warming is coming earlier within the year. It's not just the onset of spring, but the peak.” For additional information see:
Less Fog Causing Warmer Temperatures in Europe On January 18, the journal Nature Geoscience published the report that correlates the reduction in fog in Europe over the past 30 years with the exceptional increase in regional warming. The report found that Europe’s average temperature has increased by about 0.5°C per decade, which is faster than the global mean change and the trend averaged over all the Earth's land during the same period. Led by Robert Vautard of the Atomic Energy Commission in France, the team observed a 50 percent decline in “low-visibility” events since the 1970s, which they attribute to a reduction in the presence of aerosols. The report stated, “[T]he reduction in low-visibility conditions could have contributed on average to about 10–20 percent of Europe's recent daytime warming and to about 50 percent of eastern European warming.” It concluded that the past decades of improved air quality may mean that “future reductions in the frequency of low-visibility events will be limited, possibly leading to less rapid regional warming.” For additional information see:
Painting the Town White Could Reduce Global Warming On January 16, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) announced the findings of a study that is soon to be published in the journal Climatic Change that evaluates the significant cooling effects of resurfacing urban areas with white and other cool-colored materials. Hashem Akbari and Surabi Menon, scientists at LBNL, and Art Rosenfeld, California Energy Commissioner, have proposed a “Cool World” plan that would use white roofs, and solar-reflective roofs of other colors, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help delay atmospheric heating effects. Pavement and roofs account for over 60 percent of urban space, and when these surfaces are dark, they reflect about 10 to 20 percent of sunlight, according to Akbari. The LBNL news release reported that “retrofitting 1,000 square feet (about 100 square meters) of roof with cool material that reflects 60 percent or more of the sun’s heat would offset the emissions of 10 metric tons of CO2.” The cooling effect would also reduce the air conditioning needs for some structures, thereby lowering energy consumption. The study found that retrofitting pavement and roofs on urban areas throughout the globe could “induce a negative radiative forcing on the earth equivalent to offsetting about 44 billion tons of CO2 emissions.” Akbari said, “Each ten [square meters] of urban surface changed from dark to white has the same cooling effect as preventing the release of a ton of carbon dioxide, so why not include such resurfacing in carbon offset schemes?” For additional information see:
Other Headlines Climate Shift Killing US Trees
Events January 26, 2009 Coming to Grips with Sustainable Practices: Where Do We Go from Here? Please join the American Meteorological Society’s Environmental Science Seminar Series on Monday, January 26, from 12:00 noon – 2:00 p.m. in Room 253 Russell Senate Office Building. Speakers include Dr. Juliet B. Schor, Professor of Sociology at Boston College, and Betsy Taylor, a consultant at Breakthrough Strategies & Solutions, with Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science and Communication Fellow at AMS as moderator. A buffet reception will follow. This seminar series is open to the public and does not require a reservation. For more information please visit http://www.ametsoc.org/seminar. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing to discuss the opportunities for green jobs in the United States and the policies needed to support them. The briefing will highlight a new report from the American Solar Energy Society (ASES), and Management Information Services, Inc (MISI), which provides a sector-by-sector analysis of where the opportunities are in the rapidly changing renewable energy and energy efficiency industries. The briefing will take place on Wednesday, January 28, from 2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. in 385 Russell Senate Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required. For more information, please contact Amy Sauer at asauer [at] eesi.org or (202) 662-1892.
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Amy Sauer This EESI publication is a free, weekly electronic newsletter intended to inform interested parties, particularly the policymaker community, of the latest climate change-related news. Permission for reproduction of this newsletter is granted provided that EESI is properly acknowledged as the source. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute is a non-profit organization established in 1984 by a bipartisan, bicameral group of members of Congress to provide timely information on energy and environmental policy issues to policymakers and stakeholders and develop innovative policy solutions that set us on a cleaner, more secure and sustainable energy path.
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