Order DVD of this Briefing                  

Dr. Stephen Long, Dr. George Frisvold and Mr. Michael Bowman speak to a packed  room on the impacts of 
climate change on agriculture. 

Agriculture and Climate Change:  Threats and Opportunities
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
2:30 - 4:00 p.m., 485 Russell Senate Office Building

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) and Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment USA (GLOBE USA ) are pleased to invite you to a briefing on Agriculture and Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities.  Climate change poses potentially severe threats to the U.S. agriculture sector, an industry heavily dependent on weather and regional climatic factors.  Abrupt changes in climate are already impacting ranchers in Arizona who have been forced to abandon their operations when faced with an unanticipated 10-year drought.  Greg Garfin, associate staff scientist with the University of Arizona's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, said, “When we used to talk about climate, eyes would glaze over…Then the drought came.  The phone started ringing off the hook.”  While the exact impacts of climate change on weather and on agriculture are unknown, many of the methods to address climate change risks – such as carbon sequestration and biomass technologies – present interesting opportunities for the agricultural sector.

Panelists:

• Dr. Stephen Long, Professor of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  Presentation
  
• Dr. George Frisvold, Associate Professor, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Arizona   Presentation
  
• Michael Bowman, Steering Committee Member, 25x'25 and Colorado Renewable Energy Forum (CREF)  Presentation

Moderators:  Carol Werner, EESI and Will Ferretti, GLOBE USA

According to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change performed in 1999-2000, the United States can expect even more climatic disturbance.  Predicted impacts include further shifts in precipitation patterns as well as overall increases in average regional temperatures.  Predicted outcomes include increased productivity in the Corn Belt due to lengthened growing seasons and a precipitous drop in Southeastern productivity, approximately 60 percent.  Also, new studies performed by Dr. Stephen Long of the University of Illinois show that previous research regarding crop productivity had not adequately taken into account effects of increased ozone concentrations on crop yields and may have overestimated effects of CO2 fertilization.  Unfortunately, uncertainty regarding future precipitation levels and temperature regimes within the United States could have severe consequences for farmers’ and ranchers’ abilities to adapt.  These changes also could mean bad news for our neighbors, such as Mexico.  In Australia, the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Greenhouse Accounting has just released a Communiqué from their 2005 Annual Science Meeting stating climate change is already having an impact on plant growth, farm productivity, and animal habitats. According to CRC’s Chief Executive Dr. Michael Robinson, “Even 50 percent reductions in global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) would see carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise to about three times their natural levels.”  As a result, future agricultural productivity levels are uncertain at best; and alternative revenue streams to improve the adaptive capacities of the Nation’s farmers involving renewable energy production and carbon sequestration will be essential for providing “win-win” opportunities for the whole country. 

The United States’ extensive land base allows it to sequester 700 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents per year (approximately 10 percent of national GHG emissions).  Through a combination of soil carbon sequestration, forest management, afforestation, biofuel production, renewable energy deployment and GHG price incentives, ranging from $5-30/metric ton, the U.S. agriculture sector could potentially sequester 40 percent of all U.S. GHG emissions. These efforts could help invigorate languishing rural economies nationwide and increase the national agricultural adaptive capacity to prepare for the inevitable shifts in climatic conditions that the United States will be facing this century.

The briefing is open to the public and no reservations are required. Please feel free to forward this notice.  For more information, please contact Alexandra Morel at amorel@eesi.org or 202.662.1885 or Sarah King at sking@globeusa.org or 202.328.5040.

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