The Environmental and Energy Study Institute invites you to a Congressional briefing discussing the potential for an abrupt change in climate to occur and its possible impacts on global ecosystems and societies.  The most advanced scientific models agree that an unabated continuation of greenhouse gas emissions would significantly influence future climatic conditions. Until the 1990’s, the dominant view of climate change was that the earth’s atmosphere, land, and oceans would undergo a gradual warming, as greenhouse gas levels steadily increased over many decades. However, new evidence shows that periods of gradual climate change in Earth’s past were punctuated by episodes of abrupt change.  Long ago, Greenland underwent a sudden temperature change of about 10 degrees Celsius, or 18 degrees Fahrenheit within a decade, which correlates with changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the time.

The briefing panel, featuring top scientific experts in the field, will discuss scientific evidence indicating that abrupt climatic events have happened in the past, and with our current emission of greenhouse gases, could happen again in the future. The panel will also offer a media perspective on why the public and policymakers need to be aware of the potential for abrupt change. This event is the first of a four-part series of briefings on climate change issues EESI is hosting this fall.

Opening remarks will be made by Dr. Michael MacCracken, President, International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. 

Speakers will include:

Dr. Richard Alley, Chair, National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change (presentation)

Dr. Daniel Grossman, Independent Journalist, author of ‘Climate of Uncertainty’ for American Radio Works (statement/articles)

The recent paleoclimatic evidence, gathered from Arctic ice cores, tree rings, sediments and other historical indicators has revealed that sudden shifts in climatic conditions have occurred many times during previous millennia. In 2002, the National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change released Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises.  This study found that while abrupt climate changes of the past are not yet fully explained; current climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the climate system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The more rapidly climate change and climate forcing are occurring, the more likely it is that abrupt events will happen on a time scale that has immediate human and ecological consequences. Researchers do not know enough about such events to accurately predict them, so surprises are inevitable.

Legislative efforts are being made to address abrupt climate change.  Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) submitted an amendment (S.1164) authorizing $60 million “to provide for the development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program that assists the people of the United States and the world to understand, assess, and predict human-induced and natural processes of abrupt climate change.” This amendment was reported out of Committee on May 13, 2004.

(Dr. Wallace Broecker, who was listed as a speaker on the previous briefing announcement, will be unable to participate).

The briefing is open to the public and no reservations are required. For more information, please contact Alexandra Morel at 202/662-1885 or amorel@eesi.org.