This June marks the halfway point on the Chesapeake Bay’s “pollution diet”.  After just eight years of coordinated efforts, some remarkable signs of progress are emerging, including the largest ever-recorded acreage of underwater grasses, a key indicator of Bay health. Record numbers of wildlife are also being recorded. However, progress among states is uneven, and reductions in nitrogen pollution are still behind schedule. Compounding factors such as climate change, population growth, and dam sediment will also make meeting the 2025 goal more difficult.

After three decades of little progress on Bay health, states in the region and EPA came to an agreement in 2010 to set the most stringent federal “pollution diet” under the Clean Water Act.  The seven state plan includes Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia, and is overseen by the EPA and the independent Chesapeake Bay Program.  The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL aka “pollution diet”) mandates a 25 percent reduction in nitrogen, 24 percent reduction of phosphorous, and 20 percent reduction in sediment by 2025 in the watershed.

Each state’s TMDL is allocated between point sources and non-point sources.  Point sources are discrete and include industry and wastewater treatment facilities.  Non-point sources are diffuse and include agriculture and storm water management. While non-point sources are not typically regulated under the Clean Water Act, Section 303(d) does give states and the EPA authority to set up cooperative TMDL programs that regulate both point and non-point sources, when watersheds are deemed impaired, as is the case in the Chesapeake. The Chesapeake Bay TMDL program is the most extensive TMDL program under the Clean Water Act, and has survived several legal challenges.

According to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, these early signs of progress show that the TMDL “blueprint is working … The scientific data show that clearly.” However, despite solid progress on phosphorous and sediment pollution, the region is falling short on total nitrogen reductions.  The midpoint assessment of the program found that the total reduction of nitrogen in the Bay was only one-third of the total amount needed to meet the 2025 goals.

As states have tamped down on point source pollutants and more effectively dealt with storm water management, the relative share of pollutants from the agricultural sector continues to increase. Today, agriculture is the largest source of nutrient and sediment pollution in the Bay, contributing 42 percent of the total nitrogen, 55 percent of the phosphorous and 60 percent of the sediment entering the Bay. There are 83,000 farms in the region, covering about 30 percent of the landmass.

On Wednesday, June 20, EPA Region 3 outlined what it expects to see from states as they prepare implementation plans for the third – and final – phase of the plan. It will also require remedial action from Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania, in particular, has struggled to make meaningful cuts to pollutants from the agriculture sector. EPA may require additional federal action to ensure Pennsylvania can meet the goals. Additionally, Delaware’s agricultural sector is also in jeopardy of not meeting the goals.  Other areas of concern are urban and suburban pollutants in Maryland and Pennsylvania, as well as wastewater in New York. The only state that did not raise significant concern in EPA’s review of state-level ability to implement the TMDLs is Virginia. 

An additional complicating factor for Pennsylvania is that the reservoir behind the Conowingo Dam is full -- much sooner than expected -- causing all states to have to figure out how to reallocate these nutrients elsewhere in the plan.  Previously, the dam’s reservoir trapped nutrients and lessened the total amount of nitrogen reaching the Bay.  However, now that the reservoir behind the dam is full of sediment, nutrients are flowing over the dam and making their way to the Bay. Officials in the Bay region agreed to a comprehensive plan to offset these nutrients elsewhere, but the unexpected nutrients from the dam still remains a major issue.

Additionally, the TMDLs did not at all account for the increase in precipitation events due to climate change.  More frequent rainfall and severe storms drives additional nutrients into waterways.  In the Bay region, climate is expected to increase precipitation by 3 percent by 2025, causing an additional 4 percent of nitrogen to reach the Bay than previously expected.

In the agriculture sector, the most important step will be getting more farmers to grow cover crops and reduce improper storage of manure. Federal grant and loan programs supported by the Farm Bill help farmers implement conservation practices on the farm. These programs include the watershed scale Regional Conservation Partnership Program as well as farm-level conservation programs, such as the Conservation Reserve Program and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program. In the recently passed House Farm Bill, the Conservation Reserve Program was completely eliminated.  Conservation programs are preserved in the Senate version, but farm-advocates state that more money is needed to help farmers implement costly conservation practices at a time when farm income is at historic lows.

When the Chesapeake Bay TMDL program was created, some speculated that farmers and industry would now be regulated more strictly outside the region as well, but that has largely not come to pass.  In the Mississippi River Basin, where nutrient runoff contributes to the Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico, states have set voluntary nutrient reduction goals, which many say has made little progress in dealing with similar water quality issues in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, the overall economic value of a restored Bay would be valued $22 billion higher per year, as improved Bay health boosts the value of fisheries, tourism, green jobs, and enhances property values in the region.

 

 

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